25507 Cottage Hill Ln · Spring, TX 77373

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,725 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1978 8,733 sqft lot Est $243k · 24% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lexington Woods is a quaint, well-maintained neighborhood with streets lined with Victorian street lamps. Pride of ownership gleams throughout the neighborhood's manicured lawns. This light and bright 3 BR 2 BA home with a large backyard is ready for its next owner. The home is very clean and ready for updates. AC replaced in 2024. Refrigerator (2023), washer and dryer are all included. New dishwasher in December 2025. Residents have access to parks, community pool, and Spring Creek Greenway trails. Near I-45, Hardy Toll Road, and the Grand Parkway. Ideal for those looking for a convenient location in the heart of Spring.

Key facts

• Ac replaced
• Access to parks
• Large backyard

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• AC REPLACED
• REFRIGERATOR INCLUDED
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• NEW DISHWASHER
• ACCESS TO PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Lexington Woods / Spectrum Mgmt; Annual association fee of $454; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast
• Construction: Built in 1978; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Winship El (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 471 students, 72% FRL); Twin Creeks Middle (math 23% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 973 students, 83% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 599 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $185k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $243,225
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25803 Wingfield Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+1%)	9mo	$249,500	$143	76
2506 Soledad Ridge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+2%)	16mo	$259,990	$148	69
2715 Lexington Park Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+3%)	10mo	$249,900	$141	68
2838 Lexington Park Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+4%)	15mo	$250,000	$139	62
25711 Long Hill Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (+1%)	18mo	$275,000	$158	60
25206 Lynbriar Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-6%)	15mo	$240,000	$149	56
2710 Shady Bayou Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,884 (+9%)	17mo	$171,500	$91	56
2030 Lexington Woods Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+1%)	21mo	$205,000	$118	46
25411 Friar Lake Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,893 (+10%)	17mo	$180,000	$95	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,950
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,024
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 599
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,320/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,935

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $430	-5% $378	+0% $325	+5% $273	+10% $221
Rent	-10% $140	-5% $233	+0% $325	+5% $418	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $372	base $325	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $185,000 Active
3. 2003-03-04
   soldstatus
4. 1999-05-26
   soldstatus
5. 1999-05-01
   soldstatus $78,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,320 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,320 · $443/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$5,320
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$290
• After-tax cash flow: $3,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+135.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2003-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,320 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.