6115 S 351st Ave · Arlington, AZ 85354

$264,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2013 1.10 ac lot Est $339k · 22% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious rural property with endless potential! This expansive parcel offers the perfect opportunity to build your dream home, create a private retreat, or invest in Arizona land. Enjoy wide-open skies, mountain views, and the peaceful lifestyle Tonopah is known for. Currently has a nice 2013 Manufacture home that includes 4bds, 2 bath, kitchen granite counter tops and other updates thru the home. Located just a short drive from Buckeye and I-10, providing convenient access while still offering privacy and space. Ideal for those seeking room for horses, toys, or future development. Don't miss this chance to own land in a rapidly growing area with strong upside potential.

Key facts

• Room for horses
• Arizona land
• Future development

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• ARIZONA LAND
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• ROOM FOR HORSES
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: FHA
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof type; Building area per assessor
• Exterior features: Natural desert front; Natural desert back; Horses allowed; Circular driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups on file

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#361 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254) (rural): math 26% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #117 of 249 in AZ (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winters Well Elementary School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 578 students, 75% FRL); Tonopah Valley High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 865 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 791 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,983 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $338,580
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6409 S 351st Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-4%)	23mo	$323,000	$165	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $129,345
• Equity at exit: $238,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $392,765
• Equity at exit: $514,835

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85354

• Home prices YoY: 30.5%
• Active inventory: 791
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $230,895

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-144	+0% $-236	+5% $-327	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-315	+0% $-236	+5% $-156	+10% $-76
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-168	base $-236	+0.5pp $-304	+1.0pp $-374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-16
   price $264,999
3. 2026-04-28
   price $275,000
4. 2026-04-20
   price $318,000
5. 2026-03-27
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2024-02-23
   soldstatus $325,000
7. 2021-08-20
   soldstatus $295,000
8. 2021-08-20
   soldstatus $325,000
9. 2021-08-06
   historical
10. 2021-07-29
    listed $330,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥115°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$7,493
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,798
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,030/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddle Mountain Unified School District (4254)
• NCES district ID: 0407170
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,981
• Composite: 24.45/100
• National rank: #7666
• State rank: #117 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #361
• US rank: #26320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,731

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 117.45%
• Current HPI: 502.8512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-19.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $264,999 ARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $318,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $330,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.