6431 Harcourt Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$209,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1972 6,838 sqft lot $166/sqft · 48% above area Est $191k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HONEY STOP THE CAR! WOW! Lovely 4-bedroom 2 bath COMPLETELY updated. New fresh paint throughout the home, New quartz countertops in the kitchen equipped with all stainless steel appliances NEW Driveway Stainless steel appliance, new carpet in all bedrooms, Updated hardware and fixtures, even the bathrooms have been updated with modern finished, Spacious backyard perfect for family gatherings!...

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Spacious backyard
• Updated hardware

Tags

• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPDATED HARDWARE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-117 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall El (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,127 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 610 students, 98% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,789/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,857 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,464
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 14.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6611 Mohawk St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,255 (-1%)	6mo	$142,500	$114	82
11151 Spottswood Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,283 (+1%)	1mo	$99,900	$78	75
11011 Ledford Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,203 (-5%)	2mo	$170,000	$141	70
6319 Hopper Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,188 (-6%)	1mo	$110,000	$93	69
7451 Langley Rd	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,308 (+3%)	4mo	$209,219	$160	62
6302 Hanley Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	1mo	$189,999	$132	61
6330 Cobalt St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-2%)	1mo	$199,995	$161	60
6110 Guadalupe St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,336 (+6%)	1mo	$120,000	$90	60
6130 Hartwick Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,278 (+1%)	5mo	$115,000	$90	58
7422 Wheatley Gardens Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+12%)	3mo	$190,000	$134	51
6319 Annunciation St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (-4%)	6mo	$205,000	$169	50
10806 Bird Of Paradise Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	7mo	$250,990	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $83,394
• Equity at exit: $168,817

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $239,970
• Equity at exit: $344,435

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,100/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $189,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-57	+0% $-117	+5% $-176	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-188	+0% $-117	+5% $-46	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-64	base $-117	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	0.31mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.32mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.37mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.53mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.71mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.73mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	15d	1	0.76mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.83mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	0.84mi
11435 Raincove Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,345	$1.34	5d	1	0.88mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.91mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.94mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.95mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.95mi
11610 Danford Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	45d	1	1.04mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	45d	1	1.18mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.22mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	1.27mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	22d	1	1.38mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	1.46mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 476-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $209,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-03-27
    listed $229,900 Active 402-char remark

    Show marketing remark (402 chars)

    HONEY STOP THE CAR! WOW! Lovely 4-bedroom 2 bath COMPLETELY updated. New fresh paint throughout the home, New quartz countertops in the kitchen equipped with all stainless steel appliances NEW Driveway Stainless steel appliance, new carpet in all bedrooms, Updated hardware and fixtures, even the bathrooms have been updated with modern finished, Spacious backyard perfect for family gatherings!...

15. 2022-09-08
    historical
16. 2022-09-03
    listed $165,000 Active
17. 2019-04-16
    soldstatus
18. 2019-04-15
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2019-02-17
    status Pending
20. 2019-02-07
    status Option Pending
21. 2019-01-31
    listed $124,882 Active
22. 2019-01-10
    historical
23. 2019-01-07
    listed $96,882 Active
24. 2018-12-21
    soldstatus
25. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,100 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,100 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$4,100
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+137.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2022-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-03 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-02-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-01-31 Listed $124,882 HARMLS
• 2019-01-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-01-07 Listed $96,882 HARMLS
• 2018-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,100 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.