12429 Parsons Isle Ter · Memphis, FL 34221

$367,740

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $143/sqft · 8% below area Est $398k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Boasting two stories, the Concord is the largest single-family home in this collection. The first floor features a modern design with an open kitchen, living room and dining room, along with a versatile bedroom ideal for overnight guests. The second floor is home to four bedrooms, an adaptable loft and the spacious owner's suite.

Key facts

• Adaptable loft
• Versatile bedroom
• Open kitchen

Tags

• TWO STORIES
• OPEN KITCHEN
• VERSATILE BEDROOM
• ADAPTABLE LOFT
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 79d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,375/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $337,489 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $397,983
• List price: $367,740
• Delta: -7.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3268 Osteen Cv	1.17mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,544 (-1%)	10mo	$440,072	$173	49
4403 Dusky Dawn Ln	1.48mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	12mo	$409,990	$157	48
6334 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	21mo	$424,990	$163	41
6411 Flagstone Trl	1.43mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	23mo	$419,990	$161	39
6404 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	23mo	$409,990	$157	39
6431 Flagstone Trl	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	24mo	$441,990	$170	39
6119 Flagstone Trl	1.44mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,605 (+1%)	25mo	$413,990	$159	38
2814 58th Way E	0.90mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,227 (-14%)	1mo	$397,900	$179	34
8656 40th Cir E	1.44mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,909 (+13%)	12mo	$415,000	$143	27
4110 70th Street Cir E	1.08mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,962 (+15%)	13mo	$435,000	$147	25
3903 71st St E	0.93mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (-13%)	16mo	$509,000	$226	23
4413 Stargazer Ct	1.46mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,934 (+14%)	24mo	$449,990	$153	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-61,481
• Equity at exit: $54,831

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-81,318
• Equity at exit: $31,795

Cash invested: $102,967 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 42.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,390 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 57 d
• This list price: 57% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$460 /mo · $5,516/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,217

Max offer price $367,740

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $379	-5% $252	+0% $125	+5% $-2	+10% $-129
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-9	+0% $125	+5% $258	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $310	-0.5pp $218	base $125	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,935
• Closing costs: $11,032
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	77d	1	0.02mi
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	78d	1	0.02mi
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	9d	1	0.02mi
8518 41st Ave E Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3086	$3,216	$1.04	82d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $367,740 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $367,740 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $371,940 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   remarks 331-char remark
5. 2026-05-31
   listed $371,940 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,599
• − Property taxes: −$5,516
• − Insurance: −$1,839
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,240
• − Management: −$3,240
• − Depreciation: −$10,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,112
• After-tax cash flow: $2,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,900–$38,700 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with modern design and ample space. It requires minor exterior painting and flooring updates to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B