Jasmine Plan · Houston, TX 77051

$317,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Jasmine floor plan, a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage. As you enter the home, you're greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. The living and dining areas are flooded with natural light, thanks to three large windows and a door that leads directly to the backyard, offering an easy flow between indoor and outdoor spaces. Just off the living area, you'll find a convenient powder room for guests. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. To the left, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms. One bedroom features two windows and a walk-in closet, while the other room offers a single window and a closet. In front of the staircase is the secondary bathroom, which includes a dual-sink vanity and a standing tub, perfect for relaxing or sharing with family. Further down the hallway, there is another secondary room with its own closet, providing flexible space for a home office or additional bedroom. The laundry room is conveniently located across the hall, making laundry tasks easier and more efficient. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retr

Key facts

• Backyard access
• Natural light
• Large island

Tags

• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• NATURAL LIGHT
• THREE LARGE WINDOWS
• BACKYARD ACCESS
• POWDER ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $317,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,347/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,652 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,990
• List price: $317,990
• Delta: 4.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2626 Afton Heights Way	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,719 (0%)	3mo	$319,990	$186	93
10307 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,719 (0%)	2mo	$319,990	$186	92
2602 Afton Heights Way	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,719 (0%)	2mo	$316,990	$184	92
2610 Afton Heights Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,719 (0%)	3mo	$319,990	$186	92
2622 Afton Heights Way	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,586 (-8%)	2mo	$310,990	$196	76
2618 Afton Heights Way	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,586 (-8%)	1mo	$299,990	$189	76
2608 Afton Heights Way	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,586 (-8%)	1mo	$313,990	$198	76
10318 Largent Hollow Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,586 (-8%)	1mo	$313,990	$198	75
10208 Penryn Forest Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,486 (-14%)	2mo	$299,990	$202	68
10322 Penryn Forest Trl	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,486 (-14%)	2mo	$304,990	$205	68
10316 Largent Hollow Trl	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,486 (-14%)	1mo	$306,990	$207	65
9401 Kappa Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-5%)	1mo	$200,000	$123	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $154,218
• Equity at exit: $274,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $476,211
• Equity at exit: $592,528

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $268,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-43	-5% $-149	+0% $-254	+5% $-359	+10% $-465
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-347	+0% $-254	+5% $-161	+10% $-69
Rate	-1.0pp $-100	-0.5pp $-176	base $-254	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	18d	1	0.18mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,735	$1.41	21d	1	0.20mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	22d	1	0.28mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	5d	1	0.28mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	44d	1	0.46mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	2d	5	0.63mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	44d	1	0.76mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	44d	1	0.84mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	44d	1	1.00mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	3d	12	1.12mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $317,990 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $317,990 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $317,990 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $317,990 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $317,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $317,990 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $317,990 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $317,990 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $317,990 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $317,990 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $317,990 Active 152 DOM
12. 2025-12-30
    listed $317,990 Active 1496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1496 chars)

    Welcome to the Jasmine floor plan, a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage. As you enter the home, you're greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. The living and dining areas are flooded with natural light, thanks to three large windows and a door that leads directly to the backyard, offering an easy flow between indoor and outdoor spaces. Just off the living area, you'll find a convenient powder room for guests. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. To the left, you'll find two spacious secondary bedrooms. One bedroom features two windows and a walk-in closet, while the other room offers a single window and a closet. In front of the staircase is the secondary bathroom, which includes a dual-sink vanity and a standing tub, perfect for relaxing or sharing with family. Further down the hallway, there is another secondary room with its own closet, providing flexible space for a home office or additional bedroom. The laundry room is conveniently located across the hall, making laundry tasks easier and more efficient. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$8,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,017
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $317,990 Zillow