Ammolite Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$492,950

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,037 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The main floor of the exciting Ammolite plan offers a spacious great room, an inviting nook and a well-appointed kitchen with a center island and a walkin pantry. You'll also appreciate a powder room, a mudroom, a tranquil covered patio and an impressive guest suite boasting a living room, bedroom and bathroom. Upstairs, discover an airy loft, a convenient laundry, three secondary bedrooms, a shared bath, and a lavish primary suite showcasing an expansive walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks.

Key facts

• Airy loft
• Walkin pantry
• Covered patio

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALKIN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• GUEST SUITE
• AIRY LOFT

🏗️ New construction. The $492,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $697,725.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $493k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 3218 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($486k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $341,474 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.05%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $697,725
• List price: $492,950
• Delta: -29.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15415 Mulholland Rd	0.10mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,073 (+1%)	0mo	$915,000	$298	86
14538 Banks Ct	0.13mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,030 (-0%)	3mo	$499,999	$165	84
2220 Anders Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,679 (-12%)	0mo	$419,999	$157	74
15458 Mulholland Rd	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,709 (-11%)	4mo	$640,000	$236	58
14412 20th St E	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-14%)	1mo	$455,000	$174	56
3310 Twin Rivers Trl	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,700 (-11%)	2mo	$650,000	$241	55
15451 27th Ct E	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,628 (-14%)	6mo	$734,500	$279	54
3311 E 155th Ave	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,125 (+3%)	7mo	$705,000	$226	53
14911 18th Run E	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,692 (-11%)	4mo	$580,000	$215	49
2926 156th Ter E	0.61mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,773 (-9%)	6mo	$855,000	$308	45
14910 15th St E	0.74mi	4/3.0	3,300 (+9%)	5mo	$740,000	$224	45
14914 15th St E	0.74mi	4/4.0	3,489 (+15%)	2mo	$685,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-258,307
• Equity at exit: $104,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -98.3%
• Equity multiple: -1.24×
• Total profit: $-437,601
• Equity at exit: $60,327

Cash invested: $195,363 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 35 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $639,000 ($238/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 3218
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,415 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,659
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$872 /mo · $10,466/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $-2,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,104

Max offer price $390,353

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,642	-5% $-1,883	+0% $-2,124	+5% $-2,365	+10% $-2,606
Rent	-10% $-2,394	-5% $-2,259	+0% $-2,124	+5% $-1,989	+10% $-1,854
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,773	-0.5pp $-1,947	base $-2,124	+0.5pp $-2,305	+1.0pp $-2,489

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,431
• Closing costs: $20,932
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14412 20th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2613	$2,995	$1.15	32d	1	0.38mi
14412 20th St E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2613	$2,995	$1.15	1d	1	0.38mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	164d	1	1.11mi
2840 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2601	$2,717	$1.04	31d	1	1.25mi
16536 Cheyanne Ct Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,877	$1.21	10d	1	1.32mi
1043 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	2600	$6,500	$2.50	55d	1	1.34mi
16005 42nd Gln E Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	3157	$4,000	$1.27	133d	1	1.39mi
1062 145th Street Cir NE Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2630	$1,890	$0.72	10d	1	1.41mi
13744 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	2274	$2,850	$1.25	127d	1	1.41mi
13927 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2552	$3,350	$1.31	52d	1	1.44mi
13927 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	2552	$3,350	$1.31	45d	1	1.44mi
3305 Carthage Ave Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,847	$1.20	10d	1	1.45mi
3307 Barber Ave Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2377	$2,847	$1.20	10d	1	1.48mi
13845 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$3,750	$1.50	6d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for two vehicles

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $492,950 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $492,950 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $492,950 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $492,950 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $492,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $492,950 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $492,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $492,950 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $492,950 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $492,950 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $492,950 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $492,950 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $492,950 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $492,950 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $492,950 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on marketlisting id $492,950 Active 1 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $492,950 Active 254 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $492,950 Active 253 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $492,950 Active 252 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $492,950 Active 251 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $492,950 Active 250 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $492,950 Active 249 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $492,950 Active 248 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $492,950 Active 247 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $492,950 Active 246 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $492,950 Active 245 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $492,950 Active 244 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $492,950 Active 243 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $492,950 Active 242 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $492,950 Active 241 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $492,950 Active 240 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $492,950 Active 239 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $492,950 Active 238 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $492,950 Active 237 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $492,950 Active 236 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $492,950 Active 235 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $492,950 Active 234 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $492,950 Active 233 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $492,950 Active 232 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $492,950 Active 231 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $492,950 Active 230 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $492,950 Active 229 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $492,950 Active 227 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $492,950 Active 226 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $492,950 Active 224 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $492,950 Active 223 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $492,950 Active 222 DOM
48. 2026-09-18
    days on market $492,950 Active 220 DOM
49. 2026-09-17
    days on market $492,950 Active 219 DOM
50. 2026-09-16
    days on market $492,950 Active 218 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,083
• − Property taxes: −$10,466
• − Insurance: −$3,489
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,278
• − Management: −$3,278
• − Depreciation: −$20,297
• Taxable loss: −$38,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $15,185–$45,555 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good floor plan and is ready for a fresh coat of paint to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the curb appeal and resale value of the home. ↑
• Rental Upgrade the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can reduce energy costs and improve tenant satisfaction, leading to higher rental rates. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking for two vehicles

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom