15226 Loma Paseo Dr · Mission Bend, TX 77083

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1981 6,743 sqft lot $123/sqft · 11% below area Est $259k · 11% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to 15226 Loma Paseo Drive. NEW ROOF, NEW A/C, NEVER FLOODED. This beautiful home is located in Mission Bend San Miguel. This charming home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering a perfect and functional layout for growing families and first time home buyers. Close to shopping, dining, Fort Bend Schools and parks this home is a must see. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• 6,743 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: San Miguel Civic Association with an annual fee of $144

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1981; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Concrete road access; Subdivision lot
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 17x11; Bedroom (First floor) — 11x9; Bedroom (First floor) — 11x9
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 5x8; Bathroom (First floor) — 11x5
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Pots & pan drawers; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Mission Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#715 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mission Glen El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 370 students, 84% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 263 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,296 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,309
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -11.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8118 Vista Del Sol Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,868 (0%)	1mo	$269,000	$144	93
8011 Suspiro Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,833 (-2%)	2mo	$250,000	$136	76
15526 Camino Del Sol Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+0%)	3mo	$250,000	$133	69
8026 Suspiro Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-3%)	3mo	$249,000	$137	69
14631 Alannah Lagoon Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,802 (-4%)	2mo	$269,000	$149	67
9123 Chesney Downs Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,849 (-1%)	2mo	$305,000	$165	65
15519 Montesa Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,017 (+8%)	1mo	$289,000	$143	65
14735 Delbarton Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+8%)	0mo	$285,000	$141	62
15818 Beechnut St	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,040 (+9%)	1mo	$270,000	$132	56
7910 Picador Dr	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,916 (+3%)	2mo	$240,000	$125	54
15526 Barbarossa Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,141 (+15%)	3mo	$235,000	$110	51
15410 Empanada Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,083 (+12%)	1mo	$200,000	$96	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-47,889
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-60,957
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77083

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$332 /mo · $3,982/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $206,231

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-69	+0% $-135	+5% $-200	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-210	+0% $-135	+5% $-59	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-19	-0.5pp $-76	base $-135	+0.5pp $-194	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15511 Evergreen Grove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,786	$1.09	7d	1	0.26mi
15306 Evergreen Place Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$1,730	$1.00	26d	1	0.39mi
7610 San Benito Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1322	$1,786	$1.35	15d	1	0.50mi
7214 Addicks Clodine Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1969	$1,900	$0.96	7d	1	0.90mi
14507 Empanada Dr Unit 2206 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,235	$0.95	45d	1	0.93mi
9403 Coatsworth Dr Sugar Land, TX	3.0	2.5	2265	$2,050	$0.91	1d	1	0.93mi
16131 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	1.04mi
14501 Empanada Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	944	$1,549	$1.64	1d	68	1.06mi
16243 April Ridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2189	$2,295	$1.05	45d	1	1.09mi
7431 Navidad Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1904	$1,621	$0.85	45d	1	1.10mi
6514 Winkleman Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2225	$2,095	$0.94	15d	1	1.33mi
9323 Westacre Pl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1659	$1,470	$0.89	45d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   price $230,000 392-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $250,000 Active 392-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,982 · $332/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$227/yr (+$19/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,982
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $-278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission Bend

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #715
• US rank: #13356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission Bend, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 74,843
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 73,230
• Household income: $64,418
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2410.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 30% Asian 23% Two or more races 14% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 29% Vietnamese 11% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.00%
• Current HPI: 271.2157
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,982 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.