1405 S Baird St · Midland, TX 79001

$275,000

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,724 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1952 7,275 sqft lot $160/sqft · 181% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

This three unit tri plex is for sale. All of the units are leased, this is over 3 thousand in revenue a month. Each has a seperate living, kitche3n and bath

Key facts

• 7,275 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1952

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot in South Park subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South El (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 607 students, 86% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.80%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,901
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 180.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $93,524
• Equity at exit: $123,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $248,071
• Equity at exit: $190,562

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79001

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,282/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,106

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,105	-5% $1,028	+0% $950	+5% $872	+10% $794
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $819	+0% $950	+5% $1,080	+10% $1,211
Rate	-1.0pp $1,088	-0.5pp $1,020	base $950	+0.5pp $879	+1.0pp $806

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$3,309
Total (3 units)			$3,308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $275,000 Active 156-char remark
18. 2025-07-28
    historical $1,100
19. 2025-06-12
    listed $1,100
20. 2014-09-30
    soldstatus
21. 2006-06-23
    soldstatus
22. 1979-03-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,282 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,751/yr (+$313/mo · 292.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,282
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,176
• − Management: −$3,176
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $7,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $9,649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• City population: 168,494
• Population (ZIP): 181

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 12% Lithuanian 2% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+24900.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $275,000 PBBOR
• 2025-07-28 Rental Removed $1,100 PBBOR
• 2025-06-12 Listed for Rent $1,100 PBBOR
• 2014-09-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,282 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.