4515 13th St E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 270 Days on market

Built 1985 5,445 sqft lot Est $135k · 24% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quality turn key furnished 2BD/BA home that has been beautifully maintained. Both bathrooms have been remodeled. New kitchen in 2001. Ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. New interior carpeting in 2006. Siding, windows, and gutters updated in 2005.Inside laundry area. Enjoy the family room/sun porch with a/C. Finished Entry. Roof over added in 1999. 8'x10' detached storage shed has electric lights, receptacles, and 2 windows. Perfect for hobbies, workshop or is golf cart accessible. You must see this home to appreciate it. A one year Home Warrenty also comes with this home!!!

Key facts

• Vaulted ceilings
• Tile backsplash
• Built-ins

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM
• BUILT-INS
• VAULTED CEILINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey / furnished; Total rooms: 10; Living area and building area reported in public records
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Tidevue Estates Civic Organization (HOA) — monthly HOA $50 (annually $600); Association amenities: fitness center, laundry, park, pickleball courts, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Association approval required; Deed restrictions; Street lights; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Golf carts allowed; Buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built in approximately (see public records for year)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Trash compactor; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall/window AC unit(s)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry (washer and dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,536/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $168k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.66%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4508 14th St E	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	91
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	88
4207 13th St E	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	82
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	81
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	79
1432 41st Ave E	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-5%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	72
4214 15th St E	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	70
4212 13th St E	0.20mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	70
1005 45th Ave E	0.21mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	68
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.30mi	2/2.0	963 (-9%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	64
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+13%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	61
1204 43rd Ave E	0.20mi	2/2.0	903 (-14%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $26,901
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $93,213
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,840/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $944	-5% $897	+0% $849	+5% $802	+10% $754
Rent	-10% $649	-5% $749	+0% $849	+5% $949	+10% $1,050
Rate	-1.0pp $934	-0.5pp $892	base $849	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.32mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.34mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	24d	1	0.41mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.45mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.56mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.74mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.05mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.21mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    price $168,000
16. 2026-03-09
    price $178,500
17. 2025-12-16
    price $188,500
18. 2025-09-21
    listed $198,500 Active
19. 2010-05-06
    soldstatus $85,000
20. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $85,000 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Quality turn key furnished 2BD/BA home that has been beautifully maintained. Both bathrooms have been remodeled. New kitchen in 2001. Ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. New interior carpeting in 2006. Siding, windows, and gutters updated in 2005.Inside laundry area. Enjoy the family room/sun porch with a/C. Finished Entry. Roof over added in 1999. 8'x10' detached storage shed has electric lights, receptacles, and 2 windows. Perfect for hobbies, workshop or is golf cart accessible. You must see this home to appreciate it. A one year Home Warrenty also comes with this home!!!

21. 2010-03-01
    listed $107,000 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Quality turn key furnished 2BD/BA home that has been beautifully maintained. Both bathrooms have been remodeled. New kitchen in 2001. Ceramic tile in kitchen and baths. New interior carpeting in 2006. Siding, windows, and gutters updated in 2005.Inside laundry area. Enjoy the family room/sun porch with a/C. Finished Entry. Roof over added in 1999. 8'x10' detached storage shed has electric lights, receptacles, and 2 windows. Perfect for hobbies, workshop or is golf cart accessible. You must see this home to appreciate it. A one year Home Warrenty also comes with this home!!!

22. 2006-04-27
    listed $119,900
23. 1983-07-01
    soldstatus $13,500
24. 1980-05-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,840 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,840
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $7,987
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $8,274/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1668.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $168,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $178,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $188,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $198,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-30 Sold (MLS) $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-01 Listed $107,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-27 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 1980-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,840 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.