8515 State Ave #49 · Marysville, WA 98270

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1978 5.25 ac lot $117/sqft · 11% above area Est $76k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home! This cozy 2 bedroom home offers so much potential. Whether it's the perfect first home or the perfect home to downsize to. You will love it. This home has been well kept. Tile in the kitchen and bathroom floors. Stainless steel appliances. Lots of natural light. All age park. Calm and quiet park, close to I-5, Casino, shopping and bus line. Come and fall in love with this place. Space rent $985.00 plus $94.92 water/sewer/garbage. Must be approved by the park to buy.

Key facts

• Tile in kitchen
• Natural light
• Close to i-5

Tags

• TILE IN KITCHEN
• TILE IN BATHROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CLOSE TO I-5
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Storage next to home (1 storage unit); Storage located next to home; Directions: From State Ave turn into Twin Cedars Park and continue toward the back; Unit 49 is the 3rd left home.
• Financial info: Suitable for Cash or Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Located in Twin Cedars Mobile Home Park (approx. 62 homes in park); Park approved for sale; Land lease required ($985 per month)

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (service through the park); Sewer access through the park; Power provided by Snohomish PUD; Internet via Xfinity; Electric energy source
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Good condition; Mobile home remains on lot; Entry/foundation on pillar/post/pier; Composition roof; Skirt made of wood
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Built after 6/15/1976 (manufactured after 1976)
• Exterior features: Wood products siding; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric energy source
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Wood products exterior (visible from interior/exterior integration)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater located outside by storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 3.0% in Marysville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in WA, #768 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (461 students, 56% FRL); Marysville Pilchuck High School (1,238 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 40% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 442 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $85k implies a 415% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.78%
• DSCR: 3.66
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,480
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 11.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8515 State Ave #42	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	7mo	$70,000	$89	81
7508 47th Ave NE #25	0.70mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	8mo	$71,000	$91	48
4000 76th St NE #20	0.63mi	2/1.0	784 (+8%)	13mo	$62,500	$80	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $58,879
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $137,069
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98270

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $267/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $1,186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $637

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,234	-5% $1,210	+0% $1,186	+5% $1,162	+10% $1,138
Rent	-10% $1,017	-5% $1,101	+0% $1,186	+5% $1,270	+10% $1,355
Rate	-1.0pp $1,228	-0.5pp $1,207	base $1,186	+0.5pp $1,164	+1.0pp $1,141

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4521 80th St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	881	$2,150	$2.44	6d	3	0.35mi
4602 80th St NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,975	$2.54	6d	3	0.47mi
1310 Cedar Ave Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	778	$2,055	$2.64	45d	7	0.60mi
4000 76th St NE #42 Marysville, WA	2.0	1.0	540	$1,850	$3.43	6d	1	0.61mi
1100 Columbia Ave Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	759	$1,825	$2.40	3d	3	0.86mi
1060 Columbia Ave Marysville, WA	1.0	1.0	520	$1,795	$3.45	6d	2	0.93mi
7111 47th Ave NE Marysville, WA	2.0	1.0	637	$2,025	$3.18	6d	3	0.95mi
7015 47th Ave NE Marysville, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	802	$1,650	$2.06	14d	3	0.99mi
1729 8th St Marysville, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,300	$3.29	23d	1	1.21mi
715 Cedar Ave Unit 715-105 Marysville, WA	1.0	1.0	420	$1,449	$3.45	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 2016-03-23
    historical
17. 2016-03-22
    soldstatus $16,500 Sold
18. 2016-03-04
    status Pending
19. 2015-08-17
    listed $16,500 Active
20. 2012-06-10
    historical
21. 2012-06-08
    soldstatus $10,900 Sold
22. 2012-05-23
    status Pending
23. 2012-05-04
    price $10,900
24. 2012-04-17
    price $11,900
25. 2012-04-10
    price $12,900
26. 2012-03-30
    listed $14,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $267 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$566/yr (+$47/mo · 211.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$267
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,053
• − Management: −$2,053
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $13,626
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,270
• After-tax cash flow: $10,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Marysville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #768

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marysville, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 85,887
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 55,049
• Household income: $108,147
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1150.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 8% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -673.52%
• Current HPI: 321.1535
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.66%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+470.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-23 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-22 Sold (MLS) $16,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-17 Listed $16,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-10 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-08 Sold (MLS) $10,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-04 Price Changed $10,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-17 Price Changed $11,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-10 Price Changed $12,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-30 Listed $14,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $267 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.