5519 Townline Road 12 · Holiday Lakes, OH 44890

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bed, 2 bath, 1,772 sq ft home ready for renovation. Slate roof (age unknown), propane heat, and an unfinished basement. One foundation wall shows displacement/cracking, and other areas may show similar conditions & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; buyer to verify. Exterior siding appears to be an older material that may include asbestos & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; buyer to verify. Interior is dated. Property includes a barn with electric, garage doors (one with opener), a partial concrete floor, and an attached lean to, plus a second heated outbuilding with electric.

Key facts

• Barn with electric
• Unfinished basement
• Built 1920

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• BARN WITH ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#532 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Willard City (town): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #505 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 40 units permitted in Huron County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Huron County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,775
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,306
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44890

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,199 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $828/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $947

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $119,900 Under Contract 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-25
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $828 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$521/yr (+$43/mo · 62.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$828
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,151
• − Management: −$1,151
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$108
• After-tax cash flow: $2,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willard City
• NCES district ID: 3904509
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,675
• Composite: 37.04/100
• National rank: #4512
• State rank: #505 of 656 in OH

Livability — Holiday Lakes

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #9016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Huron · 56,496 people
• Population (ZIP): 10,364
• Household income: $64,971
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Huron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,572 people
• By 2030: 53,514 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 48,770 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 43,611 · -21.5%
• By 2075: 32,349 · -41.8%
• By 2100: 21,849 · -60.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Huron

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.6% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.9pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.2 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.45%
• Current HPI: 229.9428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $119,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $828 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.