17404 Carlton Cuevas Rd · Lyman, MS 39503

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2003 1.20 ac lot $96/sqft · 44% below area Est $231k · 44% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Opportunity with Scenic Pasture Views!! Discover the potential of this rural home nestled on approximately 1.2 acres. This property offers peaceful surroundings, mature fruit trees, wide-open space, and beautiful views of neighboring pastures that create a true country setting while still being a short drive to town. Ready for you chickens and goats! This home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own private retreat. With solid acreage and a desirable location in the growing Lizana/Cuevas area, the property offers strong upside potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Enjoy the privacy, room to expand, and the charm of quiet coastal country living. Property is being sold as-is, where is. Bring your vision and unlock the value of opportunity!

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Scenic pasture views
• Wide open space

Tags

• SCENIC PASTURE VIEWS
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• WIDE OPEN SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• QUIET COASTAL COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.4% in Lyman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#47 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.42%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,980
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -43.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17443 Saucier Lizana Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-1%)	20mo	$220,000	$165	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $23,695
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $101,216
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $998

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $663	-5% $626	+0% $589	+5% $552	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $520	+0% $589	+5% $658	+10% $727
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $622	base $589	+0.5pp $555	+1.0pp $521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $130,000 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Investor Opportunity with Scenic Pasture Views!! Discover the potential of this rural home nestled on approximately 1.2 acres. This property offers peaceful surroundings, mature fruit trees, wide-open space, and beautiful views of neighboring pastures that create a true country setting while still being a short drive to town. Ready for you chickens and goats! This home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own private retreat. With solid acreage and a desirable location in the growing Lizana/Cuevas area, the property offers strong upside potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Enjoy the privacy, room to expand, and the charm of quiet coastal country living. Property is being sold as-is, where is. Bring your vision and unlock the value of opportunity!

16. 2026-03-23
    price $134,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Investor Opportunity with Scenic Pasture Views!! Discover the potential of this rural home nestled on approximately 1.2 acres. This property offers peaceful surroundings, mature fruit trees, wide-open space, and beautiful views of neighboring pastures that create a true country setting while still being a short drive to town. Ready for you chickens and goats! This home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own private retreat. With solid acreage and a desirable location in the growing Lizana/Cuevas area, the property offers strong upside potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Enjoy the privacy, room to expand, and the charm of quiet coastal country living. Property is being sold as-is, where is. Bring your vision and unlock the value of opportunity!

17. 2026-02-27
    listed $139,900 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Investor Opportunity with Scenic Pasture Views!! Discover the potential of this rural home nestled on approximately 1.2 acres. This property offers peaceful surroundings, mature fruit trees, wide-open space, and beautiful views of neighboring pastures that create a true country setting while still being a short drive to town. Ready for you chickens and goats! This home is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own private retreat. With solid acreage and a desirable location in the growing Lizana/Cuevas area, the property offers strong upside potential for renovation, rental income, or resale. Enjoy the privacy, room to expand, and the charm of quiet coastal country living. Property is being sold as-is, where is. Bring your vision and unlock the value of opportunity!

18. 2010-03-23
    soldstatus
19. 2004-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$400/yr (+$33/mo · 63.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $5,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $5,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lyman

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #8189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-7.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $130,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $134,900 MLSU
• 2026-02-27 Listed $139,900 MLSU
• 2010-03-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $627 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.