24001 Muirlands Blvd #122 · Lake Forest, CA 92630

$227,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $305k · 25% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior park, space rent is $1,115/Mo. This home is impeccably maintained from the moment you enter, it is all painted white with lots of natural light its bright & clean. New triple pane etched windows, New plumbing, earthquake bracing, Laminate flooring, and a covered large deck and patio area for outdoor entertaining. The covered driveway will hold 3 cars and has a custom built storage shed.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• New patio steps
• Clubhouse

Tags

• WOOD FLOORING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW PATIO STEPS
• LANDSCAPING
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a land-lease community
• Financial info: Land lease applicable
• HOA & community: Senior community (Forest Gardens); Park name: Forest Gardens; Community features include biking

Exterior

• Parking: Two covered carport spaces; Two garage spaces; Combined driveway; total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Sewer: Sewer or septic - unknown
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home remains on site (60 ft x 12 ft)
• Construction: Metal roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; In-ground community pool (fenced); Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: 6-burner stove; Convection oven; Dishwasher; Freezer
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double sinks and walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Front door entry; Community association spa (in-ground, association-managed); 2+ access exits
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $227,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$305,280) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $228k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Forest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#387 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($126k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $228k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,087 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.04%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $305,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24001 Muirlands #11	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$165,000	$115	98
24001 Muirlands Blvd #147	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$359,000	$249	97
24001 Muirlands Blvd #315	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$305,000	$212	96
24001 Muirlands Blvd #221	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$280,000	$194	96
24001 Muirlands Blvd #329	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	5mo	$380,000	$264	96
24001 Muirlands #47	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$195,000	$135	95
24001 Muirlands Blvd #347	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$197,000	$137	95
24001 Muirlands #185	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$295,000	$205	94
24001 Muirlands Blvd #268	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-1%)	8mo	$335,000	$236	86
24001 Muirlands #352	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (+6%)	2mo	$352,500	$231	83
24001 Murilands Blvd #25	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-8%)	7mo	$209,000	$158	74
24001 Muirlands Blvd #62	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	8mo	$449,000	$277	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $49,400
• Equity at exit: $33,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $149,161
• Equity at exit: $19,670

Cash invested: $63,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92630

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,193
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,412/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$785
• Net cashflow: $1,382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $227,500

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,540	-5% $1,461	+0% $1,382	+5% $1,304	+10% $1,225
Rent	-10% $1,087	-5% $1,235	+0% $1,382	+5% $1,530	+10% $1,678
Rate	-1.0pp $1,497	-0.5pp $1,440	base $1,382	+0.5pp $1,323	+1.0pp $1,263

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,875
• Closing costs: $6,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22700 Lake Forest Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$3,235	$3.21	0d	1	0.39mi
22602 Cottonwood Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1301	$4,250	$3.27	44d	1	0.47mi
22835 Islamare Ln Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.5	1860	$6,600	$3.55	13d	1	0.56mi
24246 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,750	$3.04	25d	1	0.57mi
24241 Swiftriver Ct Lake Forest, CA	1.0	1.5	905	$2,850	$3.15	44d	1	0.57mi
22892 Plainview Cir Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1836	$5,400	$2.94	44d	1	0.60mi
24621 Overlake Dr Lake Forest, CA	3.0	2.0	1677	$4,350	$2.59	25d	1	0.75mi
23333 Ridge Route Dr Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$3,100	$3.47	3d	9	1.07mi
25092 Farthing St Lake Forest, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	881	$3,278	$3.72	0d	5	1.27mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 1B Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,950	$2.20	44d	1	1.38mi
2369 Via Mariposa E Unit 3H Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,750	$2.25	44d	1	1.38mi
2370 Via Mariposa W Unit 3D Laguna Woods, CA	3.0	3.0	1663	$3,300	$1.98	19d	1	1.43mi
2293 Via Puerta Unit O Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$3,100	$2.93	19d	1	1.48mi
2269 Via Puerta Unit N Laguna Woods, CA	2.0	2.0	1057	$2,700	$2.55	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $227,500 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,500 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,500 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,500 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,500 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $227,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,500 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $227,500 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,500 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,500 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,500 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $227,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,744
• − Property taxes: −$3,412
• − Insurance: −$1,138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,590
• − Management: −$3,590
• − Depreciation: −$6,618
• Taxable income: $13,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,309
• After-tax cash flow: $13,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saddleback Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633860
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $85,577
• Composite: 56.05/100
• National rank: #1185
• State rank: #67 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Forest

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #387
• US rank: #13130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Forest, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 80,019
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,152
• Household income: $125,853
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2412.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 19% Two or more races 16% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -866.99%
• Current HPI: 436.6189
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+75.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $227,500 CRMLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2021-04-14 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-04-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-03-09 Listed $129,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $88 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.