1031 Canary Ln · Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18436

$242,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 0.29 ac lot $224/sqft · 12% below area Est $274k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated Chalet in one of Lake Wallenpaupack's finest recreational communities! Tucked away on a great cul-de-sac, this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath home offers the perfect lake house feel with rustic character and modern updates throughout.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Spacious loft
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• COZY PROPANE FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• CENTRAL WATER AND SEWER
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities include fitness center, pool, and lake

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (unpaved)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Built in 1975
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; No foundation details listed
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wrap-around deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one is 12 x 10, the other is 11.5 x 10); Loft space (20 x 14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room fireplace (propane)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level (8 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $68k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $242k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $234,848 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,509
• List price: $242,000
• Delta: -6.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 Hidden Valley Ct	0.47mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-1%)	7mo	$140,000	$131	63
1078 Harmony Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	7mo	$295,000	$293	57
1134 Red Hawk Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,190 (+10%)	20mo	$265,000	$223	54
1028 Arrowhead Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,240 (+15%)	12mo	$300,000	$242	43
225 Eskra Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	23mo	$225,000	$234	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $152,864
• Equity at exit: $218,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $433,439
• Equity at exit: $470,153

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,845/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $242,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $400	+0% $332	+5% $263	+10% $195
Rent	-10% $146	-5% $239	+0% $332	+5% $424	+10% $517
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $393	base $332	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $242,000 Active 14 DOM

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Beautifully updated Chalet in one of Lake Wallenpaupack's finest recreational communities! Tucked away on a great cul-de-sac, this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath home offers the perfect lake house feel with rustic character and modern updates throughout.

3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Beautifully updated Chalet in one of Lake Wallenpaupack's finest recreational communities! Tucked away on a great cul-de-sac, this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath home offers the perfect lake house feel with rustic character and modern updates throughout.

4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (250 chars)

    Beautifully updated Chalet in one of Lake Wallenpaupack's finest recreational communities! Tucked away on a great cul-de-sac, this charming 2 bedroom 1 bath home offers the perfect lake house feel with rustic character and modern updates throughout.

12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 243 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $254,900 802-char remark
14. 2026-02-25
    price $259,900 802-char remark
15. 2026-01-24
    price $244,800 802-char remark
16. 2025-12-26
    price $248,900 802-char remark
17. 2025-11-23
    price $259,900 802-char remark
18. 2025-10-21
    price $268,900 802-char remark
19. 2025-09-30
    listed $279,000 Active 802-char remark
20. 2020-01-23
    soldstatus $123,000
21. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus $123,000 890-char remark
22. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus $123,000
23. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus
24. 2019-09-28
    listed $129,900
25. 2019-09-28
    listed $129,900
26. 2002-10-02
    soldstatus $54,000
27. 1998-12-16
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,835 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$989/yr (+$82/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,845
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable income: $22
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5
• After-tax cash flow: $3,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Wallenpaupack Lake Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #9541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+369.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $242,000 PWMLS
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $242,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-03 Listed $249,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-03 Listed $249,900 PWMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $254,900 PWMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $259,900 PWMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $244,800 PWMLS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $248,900 PWMLS
• 2025-11-23 Price Changed $259,900 PWMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $268,900 PWMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $279,000 PWMLS
• 2020-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) $123,000 PWMLS
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) — PWMLS
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) $123,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-09-28 Listed $129,900 PWMLS
• 2019-09-28 Listed $129,900 PWMLS
• 2002-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,845 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.