47 Fox Hill Ln · Conway, NH 03813

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 Est $103k · at est. $700/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AFFORDABLE YEAR ROUND OR VACATION HOME IN A LOVELY PARK SETTING. RECENT IMPROVEMENTS INCLUDE A NEW FURNACE, GAS FIREPLACE AND SCREENED PORCH.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Single level living
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WALK IN SHOWER
• GAS FIREPLACE
• PAVED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: East Conway Road to Mountainvale Village. Follow Mountainvale Drive to four-way at Community Building/mailbox. Go straight across intersection and then bear right at next intersection. Then right on Fox Hill Lane, second home on left.
• HOA & community: Monthly community/park fee of $700 covering water, sewer, park fees and park rent; Located in Mountainvale Village (park-approved)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; Electric service with circuit breaker(s), underground lines; High-speed internet available (cable); Cable service (Spectrum); Telephone available; Oil fuel service available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Single level; Beige exterior; Shingle (architectural) roof
• Construction: Built in 1987; Clapboard and vinyl exterior siding; Manufactured home structure
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved driveway; Lot description available (29.08)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen/dining area — approximately 13 x 10.75; Range (gas); Refrigerator; Exhaust hood
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level); Bedroom (main level) — approximately 10.25 x 11
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level); 1 three-quarter bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Forced air / hot air
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in NH, #4,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conway School District (rural): math 28% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in NH (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conway Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #230 of 263 statewide, top 91%, 201 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conway School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $100k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $102,564
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.17mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	1mo	$75,000	$81	90
50 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.18mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	2mo	$35,900	$39	86
38 Loon Mountain Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	14mo	$70,000	$76	82
92 Fox Hill Ln	0.18mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	14mo	$76,000	$82	80
74 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.13mi	2/1.0	920 (-0%)	12mo	$113,900	$124	79
27 Wildwood Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	18mo	$110,000	$119	75
14 Goldfinch Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+9%)	5mo	$120,000	$119	70
29 Eagle Ledge Loop	0.17mi	2/2.0	946 (+2%)	23mo	$132,500	$140	69
53 Fox Hill Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,035 (+12%)	15mo	$115,000	$111	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $69,573
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $194,206
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03813

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$700
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,708

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $259	+0% $230	+5% $202	+10% $174
Rent	-10% $72	-5% $151	+0% $230	+5% $309	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $256	base $230	+0.5pp $205	+1.0pp $178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24 Harmony Ln #13 Center Conway, NH	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,000	$1.88	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $700 · $8,400/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $100,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $100,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$589/yr (+$49/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$8,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $1,747
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $2,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 3302490
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,590
• Composite: 31.9/100
• National rank: #5859
• State rank: #73 of 98 in NH

Livability — Conway

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #4690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,897

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 10% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.27%
• Current HPI: 417.7399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+122.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $100,000 PrimeMLS
• 2004-12-20 Sold (MLS) $40,000 PrimeMLS
• 2004-11-23 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2004-09-30 Listed $45,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.