Leona Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

$355,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,740 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Leona floor plan is a charming one-story design that perfectly combines space and convenience. Boasting 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home provides a versatile layout tailored to meet the needs of families or those who love hosting guests. The open design of the living areas fosters connection, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the dining space and family room-ideal for both everyday life and special gatherings. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a private bathroom and a generously sized walk-in closet. The additional three bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned, offering flexibility for children, visitors, or even a home office.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 37 days

🏗️ New construction. The $355,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $387,907.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $356k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-830 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.7% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1743 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,248 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,907
• List price: $355,990
• Delta: -8.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10714 Maia Mills Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (+1%)	2mo	$350,000	$199	84
10711 Ashlesha Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+3%)	2mo	$335,000	$187	82
10414 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+1%)	3mo	$379,990	$217	75
26722 Hypatia Trce	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,632 (-6%)	2mo	$299,900	$184	73
26831 Concord Dawn Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+3%)	2mo	$374,900	$210	69
10422 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	1,878 (+8%)	2mo	$379,900	$202	66
10430 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,927 (+11%)	3mo	$399,990	$208	62
26711 Concord Dawn Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	1,927 (+11%)	3mo	$345,000	$179	58
11023 Overland Trail Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-4%)	3mo	$285,000	$170	55
10518 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,985 (+14%)	3mo	$404,990	$204	52
11331 Elizabeth Brook Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,938 (+11%)	2mo	$304,900	$157	43
26210 Christen Canyon Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,997 (+15%)	1mo	$328,000	$164	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-122,561
• Equity at exit: $57,838

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-201,195
• Equity at exit: $33,539

Cash invested: $108,614 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 58 active · 32 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $344,995 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 53% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1743
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,034
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$485 /mo · $5,819/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,393

Max offer price $267,779

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-562	-5% $-696	+0% $-830	+5% $-964	+10% $-1,098
Rent	-10% $-1,015	-5% $-923	+0% $-830	+5% $-738	+10% $-645
Rate	-1.0pp $-635	-0.5pp $-732	base $-830	+0.5pp $-931	+1.0pp $-1,033

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,977
• Closing costs: $11,637
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26831 Chandrila Vista Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	30d	1	0.01mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	139d	1	0.89mi
9547 Summer River Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,300	$1.19	45d	1	1.16mi
6442 Applewood Forest Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,650	$0.94	45d	1	1.18mi
26719 Henson Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,950	$1.48	139d	1	1.23mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	139d	1	1.39mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,325	$2.92	10d	1	1.39mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	139d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Leona planNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area approx. 1,740

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Leona)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $355,990 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $355,990 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $355,990 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $355,990 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $355,990 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $355,990 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $355,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $355,990 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $355,990 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $355,990 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $355,990 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $355,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $355,990 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $355,990 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $355,990 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $350,990 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $350,990 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $350,990 Active 11 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $350,990 Active 10 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $350,990 Active 9 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $350,990 Active 8 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $350,990 Active 7 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $350,990 Active 6 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $350,990 Active 5 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $350,990 Active 4 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $350,990 Active 3 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $350,990 Active 2 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on marketlisting id $350,990 Active 1 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $350,990 Active 279 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $350,990 Active 278 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $350,990 Active 277 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $350,990 Active 276 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $350,990 Active 275 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $350,990 Active 274 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $350,990 Active 273 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $350,990 Active 272 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $350,990 Active 271 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $350,990 Active 270 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $350,990 Active 268 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $350,990 Active 267 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $350,990 Active 266 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $350,990 Active 265 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $350,990 Active 262 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $350,990 Active 260 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $350,990 Active 259 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $350,990 Active 257 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $350,990 Active 255 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $350,990 Active 254 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $350,990 Active 253 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $350,990 Active 252 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,729
• − Property taxes: −$5,819
• − Insurance: −$1,940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$11,285
• Taxable loss: −$17,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,118
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,700–$26,100 screening

The Leona Plan home is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $350,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Leona planNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area approx. 1,740

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Leona)