209 S Terrell St · Falfurrias, TX 78355

$27,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot $19/sqft · 71% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a generously sized lot. A detached garage offers added storage or workshop space, while the expansive fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or future landscaping dreams. Inside, the home features a functional layout. While it does need some repairs, it’s being sold as is—making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone looking to customize a home to their taste.

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Functional layout
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $27k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $629 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $27k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#242 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brooks County ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #776 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $319 of equity ($187 loan paydown + $132 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $23,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 119.22%
• DSCR: 6.30
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,064
• List price: $27,000
• Delta: -70.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 W Holland St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	13mo	$129,900	$87	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.49% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $39,984
• Equity at exit: $8,506

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.04×
• Total profit: $91,058
• Equity at exit: $10,773

Cash invested: $7,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78355

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$142
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $405

Max offer price $27,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $636	+0% $629	+5% $621	+10% $614
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $581	+0% $629	+5% $676	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $642	-0.5pp $636	base $629	+0.5pp $622	+1.0pp $615

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,750
• Closing costs: $810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $27,000 Pending 198 DOM
2. 2026-04-28
   price $27,000 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a generously sized lot. A detached garage offers added storage or workshop space, while the expansive fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or future landscaping dreams. Inside, the home features a functional layout. While it does need some repairs, it’s being sold as is—making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone looking to customize a home to their taste.

3. 2025-11-13
   listed $31,000 Active 476-char remark

   Show marketing remark (476 chars)

   Discover the potential in this 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home nestled on a generously sized lot. A detached garage offers added storage or workshop space, while the expansive fenced backyard is perfect for pets, play, or future landscaping dreams. Inside, the home features a functional layout. While it does need some repairs, it’s being sold as is—making it a great opportunity for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone looking to customize a home to their taste.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AO · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,512
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$1,603
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$785
• Taxable income: $7,667
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $5,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooks County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811580
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $23,562
• Composite: 17.44/100
• National rank: #9064
• State rank: #776 of 826 in TX

Livability — Falfurrias

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #242
• US rank: #5822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Falfurrias, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,843

Population outlook (Brooks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,122 people
• By 2030: 7,090 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 7,023 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 6,954 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 6,413 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 5,296 · -25.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 91% Two or more races 38% White 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Brooks

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.6) · D 54.5% · R 44.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: 51.6pp · 2024: 9.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.6 2020: D+19.0 2016: D+51.0 2012: D+57.4 2008: D+51.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.49%
• Current HPI: 78.6241
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $27,000 CBMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $31,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $541 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.