5233 Sam Houston · Log Cabin, TX 75148

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · Manufactured · 113 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition 7,492 sqft lot $53/sqft · 26% below area Est $115k · 26% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This clean and well-maintained mobile home offers a flexible floor plan with 2 bedrooms plus a bonus room or possible 3rd bedroom, with a separate exterior entrance, perfect for a home office, guest space, or rental potential. Recent updates include fresh interior paint and new carpet in most rooms, giving the home a bright, move-in-ready feel. Complete roof replacement including rafters and decking in 2025. Enjoy year-round comfort with central heat and air, along with a large fenced yard perfect for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. Whether you’re looking for an affordable place to call home or a great investment opportunity, this property offers versatility, functionality, and value. Located close to the Log Cabin boat ramp and park.

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Flexible floor plan
• Large fenced yard

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• SEPARATE EXTERIOR ENTRANCE
• LARGE FENCED YARD
• COVERED PARKING
• LOG CABIN BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 0.9% in Log Cabin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,626 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.09%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,028
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -26.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5233 Sam Houston	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,592 (0%)	1mo	$84,900	$53	99
5001 Connie Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+13%)	6mo	$125,000	$70	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $69,667
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.08×
• Total profit: $168,188
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75148

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,274/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $743

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Loma Vis Malakoff, TX	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	43d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-10
   historical Active Option Contract 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   This clean and well-maintained mobile home offers a flexible floor plan with 2 bedrooms plus a bonus room or possible 3rd bedroom, with a separate exterior entrance, perfect for a home office, guest space, or rental potential. Recent updates include fresh interior paint and new carpet in most rooms, giving the home a bright, move-in-ready feel. Complete roof replacement including rafters and decking in 2025. Enjoy year-round comfort with central heat and air, along with a large fenced yard perfect for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. Whether you’re looking for an affordable place to call home or a great investment opportunity, this property offers versatility, functionality, and value. Located close to the Log Cabin boat ramp and park.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $84,900 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   This clean and well-maintained mobile home offers a flexible floor plan with 2 bedrooms plus a bonus room or possible 3rd bedroom, with a separate exterior entrance, perfect for a home office, guest space, or rental potential. Recent updates include fresh interior paint and new carpet in most rooms, giving the home a bright, move-in-ready feel. Complete roof replacement including rafters and decking in 2025. Enjoy year-round comfort with central heat and air, along with a large fenced yard perfect for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. Whether you’re looking for an affordable place to call home or a great investment opportunity, this property offers versatility, functionality, and value. Located close to the Log Cabin boat ramp and park.

3. 2026-01-27
   listed $89,000 Active 759-char remark

   Show marketing remark (759 chars)

   This clean and well-maintained mobile home offers a flexible floor plan with 2 bedrooms plus a bonus room or possible 3rd bedroom, with a separate exterior entrance, perfect for a home office, guest space, or rental potential. Recent updates include fresh interior paint and new carpet in most rooms, giving the home a bright, move-in-ready feel. Complete roof replacement including rafters and decking in 2025. Enjoy year-round comfort with central heat and air, along with a large fenced yard perfect for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. Whether you’re looking for an affordable place to call home or a great investment opportunity, this property offers versatility, functionality, and value. Located close to the Log Cabin boat ramp and park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,274
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $15,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,664
• After-tax cash flow: $12,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home offers a flexible floor plan with fresh paint and recent updates, making it a move-in-ready investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing kitchen and bathrooms
• Both landscape yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and fixtures — modernizing kitchen and bathrooms ↑
• Both landscape yard — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Log Cabin

• Score: 38/100
• State rank: #1626
• US rank: #27499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Log Cabin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,944

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.76%
• Current HPI: 217.1629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $89,000 NTREIS