317 S 63rd Ave Ave W · Duluth, MN 55807

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1922 1,307 sqft lot Est $146k · 28% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper Opportunity! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home offers a great opportunity for renovation. The property is in need of repairs and updates but provides a solid structure and plenty of potential. Conveniently located near local amenities, this home is ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life.

Key facts

• Solid structure
• 1,307 sq ft lot
• Built 1922

Tags

• SOLID STRUCTURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.67%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,992
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6307 Sherburne St	0.03mi	2/1.0	952 (+0%)	6mo	$155,000	$163	92
5914 Raleigh St	0.26mi	2/1.0	998 (+5%)	5mo	$75,000	$75	75
222 S 62nd Ave Ave W	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	10mo	$160,000	$154	68
208 S 71st Ave Ave W	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$154	53
210 S 71st Ave Ave W	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$154	53
204 S 71st Ave Ave W	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	7mo	$165,000	$159	53
212 S 71st Ave Ave W	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$154	53
206 S 71st Ave Ave W	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$154	53
317 N 61st Ave Ave W	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,022 (+8%)	5mo	$150,000	$147	48
228 S 62nd Ave Ave W	0.57mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	9mo	$160,000	$154	48
224 S 62nd Ave Ave W	0.56mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	10mo	$160,000	$154	48
230 S 62nd Ave Ave W	0.57mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	10mo	$165,000	$159	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $9,016
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $41,440
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55807

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,457 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,794/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $941

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
509 N 53rd Ave W Duluth, MN	2.0	1.0	931	$1,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-10
   price $104,900
3. 2025-10-23
   listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,794 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,794
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,399
• − Management: −$1,399
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $3,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$826
• After-tax cash flow: $4,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• County: Saint Louis County · 115,152 people
• City population: 71,097
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 9,763
• Household income: $62,067
• Rent vs Own: 28.4% rent · 71.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.84%
• Current HPI: 212.6883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Duluth, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-26 Pending — LSAR
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $104,900 LSAR
• 2025-10-23 Listed $119,900 LSAR

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,794 · +26.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.