5243 E Lakeshore Dr · Belton, TX 76513

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1975 9,147 sqft lot $173/sqft · 22% below area Est $333k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a charming residence at 5243 E Lakeshore Dr, Belton, TX. This delightful home has a spacious layout with well-appointed rooms, appropriate for comfortable living. The property features a modern kitchen with ample cabinetry, inviting living spaces, and a serene backyard. Enjoy the convenience of being located near beautiful lakes and outdoor recreational areas. This property provides a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a tranquil lifestyle.

Key facts

• Modern kitchen
• Serene backyard
• 9,147 sq ft lot

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• SERENE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($637/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Belton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#462 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Belton ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 826 in TX (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 745 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $260k implies a 332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,077 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,000
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -21.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5480 Fm 439	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,368 (-9%)	2mo	$240,000	$175	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,640
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-48,195
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76513

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 745
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$301 /mo · $3,607/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,244

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4724 Lakeview Dr Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$3,400	$2.03	23d	1	0.28mi
3277 Beevers Cir Belton, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,500	$0.83	43d	1	0.61mi
3271 Beevers Cir Belton, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.62mi
3225 Tortuga Ct Belton, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,250	$1.21	23d	1	1.00mi
3104 Ingram Cir Belton, TX	4.0	2.0	2088	$2,495	$1.19	43d	1	1.08mi
2601 Amber Forest Trl Belton, TX	4.0	2.0	1865	$2,050	$1.10	13d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $260,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $260,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $260,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $260,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $260,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $260,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $260,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $260,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $260,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $260,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $260,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $260,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $260,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $260,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-19
    listed $260,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Welcome to a charming residence at 5243 E Lakeshore Dr, Belton, TX. This delightful home has a spacious layout with well-appointed rooms, appropriate for comfortable living. The property features a modern kitchen with ample cabinetry, inviting living spaces, and a serene backyard. Enjoy the convenience of being located near beautiful lakes and outdoor recreational areas. This property provides a wonderful opportunity to enjoy a tranquil lifestyle.

17. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus
18. 2022-07-22
    price $255,000
19. 2022-07-22
    status Pending
20. 2022-07-19
    listed $250,000 Active
21. 2017-05-24
    soldstatus
22. 2017-03-01
    soldstatus
23. 2017-03-01
    soldstatus $60,140
24. 2017-03-01
    soldstatus
25. 2016-10-03
    listed $100,000
26. 2016-10-03
    listed $100,000
27. 2016-08-31
    listed $100,000
28. 2016-08-31
    listed $100,000
29. 2013-12-03
    soldstatus
30. 2013-11-21
    soldstatus $82,200
31. 2013-07-24
    listed $89,950
32. 2011-04-12
    soldstatus
33. 2011-04-11
    soldstatus $79,900
34. 2011-02-23
    listed $79,900
35. 2009-08-03
    soldstatus
36. 2009-02-18
    soldstatus
37. 1999-08-31
    soldstatus
38. 1997-12-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,607 · $301/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,151/yr (+$96/mo · 31.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$3,607
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$3,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $1,535/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809860
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $61,239
• Composite: 37.62/100
• National rank: #4378
• State rank: #285 of 826 in TX

Livability — Belton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #9300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 45,928
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,928
• Household income: $80,661
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1198.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Korean 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
• Current HPI: 183.6715
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.29%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+225.4% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $260,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $255,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-07-22 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-07-19 Listed $250,000 CTXMLS
• 2017-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-01 Sold (MLS) — MRMLS
• 2017-03-01 Sold (MLS) $60,140 CTXMLS
• 2017-03-01 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2016-10-03 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-10-03 Listed $100,000 MRMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $100,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $100,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-11-21 Sold (MLS) $82,200 CTXMLS
• 2013-07-24 Listed $89,950 CTXMLS
• 2011-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-11 Sold (MLS) $79,900 CTXMLS
• 2011-02-23 Listed $79,900 CTXMLS
• 2009-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,607 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.