25802 Deep Blue Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$364,590

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,794 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 $167/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Bridle Floor Plan - This new two-story home features a secluded first-floor owner’s suite, a private retreat with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. An open plan blends a modern kitchen with the living and dining areas, adjacent to a spacious covered patio for year-round outdoor enjoyment. Upon entry is a secondary bedroom with an en-suite bathroom, and two additional bedrooms are located on the second floor. This home provides desirable features such as a first-floor study and a flexible game room on the upper level. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Covered patio
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNERS SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• MODERN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• EN SUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Community managed by Alamo Management Group; Community amenities include picnic area, playground, and park; Association fee of $2,000 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot feature; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Bedrooms on second floor; Total of 9 rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $364,590 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $445,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,744 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.28%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $445,995
• List price: $364,590
• Delta: -18.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25818 Deep Blue Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,794 (0%)	1mo	$430,990	$154	95
25830 Deep Blue Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,794 (0%)	2mo	$442,990	$159	93
25810 Deep Blue Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5	2,902 (+4%)	1mo	$444,990	$153	92
8203 Tidal View Dr	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,731 (-2%)	4mo	$427,990	$157	91
8215 Tidal View Dr	0.05mi	4/3.5	2,902 (+4%)	2mo	$461,990	$159	90
8211 Tidal View Dr	0.05mi	4/3.5	3,198 (+14%)	1mo	$452,990	$142	73
25715 Sapphire Cove St	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (-9%)	2mo	$363,990	$143	72
8302 Poseidon Cove Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (-9%)	2mo	$369,990	$146	72
25739 Sapphire Cove St	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (-9%)	4mo	$367,990	$145	70
25731 Sapphire Cove St	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,410 (-14%)	4mo	$369,990	$154	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-154,568
• Equity at exit: $66,499

10-year hold

• IRR: -89.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.08×
• Total profit: $-260,015
• Equity at exit: $38,561

Cash invested: $124,879 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,339
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$557 /mo · $6,690/yr
• Insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$167
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-1,173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,113

Max offer price $276,189

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-865	-5% $-1,019	+0% $-1,173	+5% $-1,328	+10% $-1,482
Rent	-10% $-1,381	-5% $-1,277	+0% $-1,173	+5% $-1,070	+10% $-966
Rate	-1.0pp $-949	-0.5pp $-1,060	base $-1,173	+0.5pp $-1,289	+1.0pp $-1,407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,499
• Closing costs: $13,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	44d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $167 · $2,004/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $364,590 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $364,590 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $364,590 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $364,590 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $364,590 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $364,590 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $364,590 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-05-14
   historical
9. 2026-05-14
   listed $370,990 Active 698-char remark
10. 2026-05-07
    price $370,990
11. 2026-05-01
    price $382,990
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $445,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,983
• − Property taxes: −$6,690
• − Insurance: −$2,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,522
• − Management: −$2,522
• − HOA: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$12,974
• Taxable loss: −$22,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $364,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $370,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $370,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $382,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $445,990 HARMLS