39438 Rockford Ave · Zephyrhills North, FL 33542

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1979 0.25 ac lot Est $97k · 19% over $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE CORNER LOT:This fresh and clean home sits beautifully on this large corner lot with side entrance in fantastic community with very low yearly fees that include water. 2 bedroom , bath and a half , bright open floor plan with lots of windows for natural light, allappliances, built in china, large heated Florida room, open front porch leading to enclosed utility room and separate storage shed off carport. Immaculate home comes completely furnished and ready to move in to. You own your lot in Gem Estates and petsok. Clubhouse and activities!

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Storage rooms
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• EXTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE ROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: RMH; Total lot about 0.25 acres; Home is furnished; Total room count: 3
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Paula Beck) with annual fee of $350 (monthly equivalent $29.17); Association approval required; Association fee covers recreational facilities and water; Community clubhouse; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; High‑speed internet available; Electricity available; Water available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Building area about 1,084 sq ft
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#787 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.6%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $115k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,768
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39401 Sycamore Ln	0.14mi	2/1.0	784 (+2%)	15mo	$92,000	$117	74
39519 Rockford Ave	0.07mi	2/1.5	844 (+10%)	11mo	$120,000	$142	69
39612 Sterling Dr	0.16mi	2/1.5	672 (-12%)	2mo	$85,000	$126	68
39107 Hillcrest Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	672 (-12%)	2mo	$77,000	$115	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-7,781
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,565
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33542

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $262	+0% $230	+5% $197	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $127	-5% $179	+0% $230	+5% $281	+10% $333
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $259	base $230	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5603 Eugene Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.30mi
5548 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	14d	1	0.31mi
5532 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,100	$1.28	14d	1	0.33mi
5600 Jennie St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	730	$1,100	$1.51	25d	1	0.34mi
5552 Annette St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	652	$1,049	$1.61	25d	1	0.35mi
38939 North Ave Unit 2 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,300	$1.49	19d	1	0.52mi
5647 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	0.52mi
38942 9th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,425	$1.68	25d	1	0.53mi
5532 20th St Unit 1234470P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$7,732	$9.22	0d	1	0.56mi
5542 20th St Unit 1234473P Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	839	$3,199	$3.81	4d	1	0.56mi
5652 18th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,200	$1.23	25d	1	0.60mi
39132 County Road 54 #2184 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	0.64mi
39132 County Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,500	$1.74	25d	1	0.66mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	25d	1	0.80mi
38621 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1040	$1,495	$1.44	0d	1	0.81mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	6d	1	0.83mi
5217 17th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,050	$1.94	25d	1	0.93mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	0d	1	1.01mi
39014 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	6d	1	1.01mi
5028 16th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	0d	1	1.09mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	25d	1	1.10mi
4845 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	752	$1,350	$1.80	25d	1	1.12mi
4808 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	702	$1,295	$1.84	11d	1	1.16mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	25d	1	1.19mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.19mi
5206 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.19mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$950	$1.73	6d	1	1.20mi
5214 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	18d	1	1.20mi
5208 7th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,100	$2.00	0d	1	1.20mi
4738 20th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	810	$1,400	$1.73	25d	1	1.21mi
5150 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$925	$1.54	25d	1	1.31mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	1.32mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	1.34mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	25d	1	1.34mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	25d	1	1.40mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	25d	1	1.45mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-02-26
    status Active
15. 2026-02-18
    status Pending
16. 2026-02-16
    listed $115,000 Active
17. 2011-03-28
    soldstatus $50,000
18. 2011-03-25
    soldstatus $50,000 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    LARGE CORNER LOT:This fresh and clean home sits beautifully on this large corner lot with side entrance in fantastic community with very low yearly fees that include water. 2 bedroom , bath and a half , bright open floor plan with lots of windows for natural light, allappliances, built in china, large heated Florida room, open front porch leading to enclosed utility room and separate storage shed off carport. Immaculate home comes completely furnished and ready to move in to. You own your lot in Gem Estates and petsok. Clubhouse and activities!

19. 2010-11-02
    listed $54,900 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    LARGE CORNER LOT:This fresh and clean home sits beautifully on this large corner lot with side entrance in fantastic community with very low yearly fees that include water. 2 bedroom , bath and a half , bright open floor plan with lots of windows for natural light, allappliances, built in china, large heated Florida room, open front porch leading to enclosed utility room and separate storage shed off carport. Immaculate home comes completely furnished and ready to move in to. You own your lot in Gem Estates and petsok. Clubhouse and activities!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills North

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #18026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills North, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,612
• Household income: $49,316
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 831.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.25%
• Current HPI: 313.3993
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.56%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-25 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-02 Listed $54,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.