786 County Road 4070 · Merryville, LA 75928

$94,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 589 Days on market

Built 1980 5.17 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALMOST 5 ACRES! Discover the potential of 786 CR 4070, a fixer-upper home in the Bon Weir, TX area. In need of work and maintenance, this residence presents an exciting opportunity for customization and improvement. With a brick exterior, the home offers a classic and enduring aesthetic. Situated on nearly 5 acres of land (213,444 sq ft), the property provides ample space for potential landscaping, expansion, or outdoor activities. Embrace the challenge of transforming this property into your dream home, leveraging the spacious lot and solid structure to create a personalized place in a great location. Contact us today for more information! AS IS.

Key facts

• 5.17 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 589 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#196 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 589 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $83,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 589 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.56%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $26,358
• Equity at exit: $42,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $72,948
• Equity at exit: $65,830

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,113/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $798

Max offer price $94,999

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,999 Active 589 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,999 Active 588 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,999 Active 587 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,999 Active 586 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,999 Active 585 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,999 Active 584 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,999 Active 583 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,999 Active 580 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,999 Active 579 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,999 Active 578 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,999 Active 577 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,999 Active 574 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,999 Active 573 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,999 Active 572 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,999 Active 571 DOM
16. 2024-11-06
    listed $94,999 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    ALMOST 5 ACRES! Discover the potential of 786 CR 4070, a fixer-upper home in the Bon Weir, TX area. In need of work and maintenance, this residence presents an exciting opportunity for customization and improvement. With a brick exterior, the home offers a classic and enduring aesthetic. Situated on nearly 5 acres of land (213,444 sq ft), the property provides ample space for potential landscaping, expansion, or outdoor activities. Embrace the challenge of transforming this property into your dream home, leveraging the spacious lot and solid structure to create a personalized place in a great location. Contact us today for more information! AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,113 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,113 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,113
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,051
• − Management: −$1,051
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $1,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$326
• After-tax cash flow: $2,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832730
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 24.26/100
• National rank: #7719
• State rank: #661 of 826 in TX

Livability — Merryville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #15511

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 936

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,123 people
• By 2030: 12,567 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 11,431 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 10,393 · -20.8%
• By 2075: 8,230 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 6,038 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 54% White 45%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.6% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.4pp toward R · 2008: -32.2pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+60.9 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+43.3 2008: R+32.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-11-06 Listed $94,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,113 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.