195 Denmark Dr · Bradenton, FL 34222

$246,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition Est $174k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. RARE NEW HOME WITH DOCK, ON MARINA AND MANATEE RIVER. We have a stunning, brand-new Cavco Home in the Raleigh w/ Rear Porch Floor Plan, a 3-bedroom, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1,460 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Located in Ellenton FL, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and luxury amenities. The kitchen boasts an impressive amount of countertop space and storage, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The

Key facts

• Luxury amenities
• New home with dock
• On marina

Tags

• NEW HOME WITH DOCK
• ON MARINA
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LUXURY AMENITIES
• FULLY COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed for $246,000

Exterior

• Home design: Raleigh floorplan with half rear porch (Limited Series); Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1460

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $246k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $246k).
• Recommended offer: $239k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,617/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,620 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.40%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,740
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Meadow Cir	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-4%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	57
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	55
51 Partridge Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-10%)	1mo	$233,000	$177	52
137 Osprey Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	49
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (+10%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	47
166 Nightingale Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+7%)	12mo	$187,000	$119	47
181 Nightingale Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	6mo	$190,000	$117	44
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-11%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	41
93 Meadow Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-11%)	9mo	$127,500	$98	39
85 Meadow Cir	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+11%)	11mo	$241,000	$149	39
158 Nightingale Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-12%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	39
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-16,414
• Equity at exit: $36,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $16,009
• Equity at exit: $21,270

Cash invested: $68,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$308 /mo · $3,690/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,152

Max offer price $246,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $538	-5% $453	+0% $368	+5% $283	+10% $198
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $264	+0% $368	+5% $471	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $430	base $368	+0.5pp $304	+1.0pp $239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,500
• Closing costs: $7,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.58mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	4d	1	0.74mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	2d	67	0.81mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	3d	37	0.89mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	4d	1	0.99mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$6,500	$3.72	15d	1	1.05mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	1.20mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	1.26mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	1.27mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	1.29mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$3,139	$3.07	4d	15	1.36mi
6411 Grand Estuary Trl #401 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,325	$2.01	16d	1	1.42mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.43mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	1.45mi
6515 Grand Estuary Trl #107 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,950	$3.42	24d	1	1.45mi
6519 Grand Estuary Trl Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,000	$2.60	24d	2	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $246,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $246,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $246,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $246,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $246,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $246,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $246,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $246,000 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,780
• − Property taxes: −$3,690
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,513
• − Management: −$2,513
• − Depreciation: −$7,156
• Taxable income: $525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126
• After-tax cash flow: $4,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home is in poor condition and requires extensive repairs and updates to improve its condition and increase its resale or rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is visibly worn and in poor condition.
• Major roof — The roof is not visible, but the condition of the home suggests it may need repair or replacement.
• Major flooring — The flooring is not visible, but the condition of the home suggests it may need repair or replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need repair or repainting.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need repair or replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping and curb appeal are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need improvement to enhance its appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both roof repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof will protect the home from weather damage and increase its value.
• Both flooring repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both interior wall repainting — Repainting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both HVAC system repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvement — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's appearance and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The exterior siding is visibly worn and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof is not visible, but the condition of the home suggests it may need repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is not visible, but the condition of the home suggests it may need repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need repair or repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC and mechanical systems are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping and curb appeal are not visible, but the condition of the home suggests they may need improvement to enhance its appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Repairing the exterior siding will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both roof repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the roof will protect the home from weather damage and increase its value. ↑
• Both flooring repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both interior wall repainting — Repainting the interior walls will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system repair/replacement — Repairing or replacing the HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvement — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal will enhance the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B