4823 San Francisco Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$79,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,157 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1923 4,800 sqft lot $69/sqft · 37% above area Est $58k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4823 San Francisco Avenue — a beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home ready for its next owner! Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or a savvy investor, this property offers incredible value and comfort in a convenient Saint Louis location. Step inside to find a bright, open living space with plenty of natural light, a functional layout, and updates throughout. The spacious kitchen. You’ll love the two full bathrooms that provide modern convenience and comfort for everyone. Outside, enjoy a low-maintenance yard and plenty of room for outdoor relaxation or weekend projects. This home is move-in ready — just bring your furniture and make it your own!

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,157 (from public records); Lot approx. 0.1102 acres; Road surfaces include asphalt and concrete; frontage on alley, city street, and county road; Green energy efficient: HVAC
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage reported
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking spaces reported; No carport
• Security: Security system (owned)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; House with one level; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Basement (has basement; described as Other)
• Exterior features: Porch; Back yard; Private lot; Street lights in the neighborhood

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 2 bedrooms on the main level; 1 bedroom on the lower level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom on the lower level
• Heating & cooling: Electric and natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Froebel Elem. (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,052 of 1,115 statewide, top 95%, 176 students, 98% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,599 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.97%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,209
• List price: $79,999
• Delta: 37.43%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4843 Lee Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,170 (+1%)	2mo	$71,500	$61	85
4533 Lexington Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+2%)	3mo	$105,900	$90	75
4853 Lee Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-6%)	3mo	$29,900	$27	72
4610 Penrose St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,053 (-9%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	61
4416 San Francisco Ave	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,167 (+1%)	6mo	$29,900	$26	59
4400 San Francisco Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,167 (+1%)	8mo	$7,000	$6	58
4627 Korte Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,072 (-7%)	2mo	$18,100	$17	55
4430 Sexauer Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,212 (+5%)	6mo	$64,500	$53	55
4246 N Taylor Ave	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,101 (-5%)	3mo	$60,000	$54	55
4501 San Francisco Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,066 (-8%)	8mo	$150,000	$141	54
4514 Bircher Blvd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+6%)	4mo	$30,000	$25	49
4848 Calvin Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,004 (-13%)	4mo	$65,000	$65	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $14,309
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $47,491
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $259/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $79,999

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $451	+0% $429	+5% $406	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $338	-5% $384	+0% $429	+5% $474	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $469	-0.5pp $449	base $429	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.13mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	44d	1	0.23mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	3d	1	0.47mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	17d	1	0.47mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	44d	1	0.55mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	44d	1	0.69mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	44d	1	0.81mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	15d	1	0.95mi
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	44d	1	0.95mi
2831 Abner Pl Unit 7 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	24d	1	1.06mi
5338 Claxton Ave Unit 33 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,550	$1.30	44d	1	1.18mi
1965 Arlington Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	980	$1,300	$1.33	5d	1	1.29mi
5333 Patton Ave St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1262	$1,250	$0.99	44d	1	1.33mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	5d	1	1.35mi
4715 Thrush Ave Unit 24 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.40mi
1232 N Euclid Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,395	$1.42	44d	1	1.43mi
1708 Annie Malone Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	924	$1,500	$1.62	44d	1	1.45mi
4914 Plover Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1248	$925	$0.74	24d	1	1.46mi
4719 Plover Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	5d	1	1.47mi
4737 Plover Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,999 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,999 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,999 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,999 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,999 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,999 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,999 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,999 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,999 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,999 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,999 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,999 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,999 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    listed $79,999 Active 938-char remark
16. 2026-01-23
    price $89,900
17. 2025-10-31
    listed $99,900 Active
18. 2011-12-12
    soldstatus $66,000
19. 2009-08-05
    soldstatus $9,000
20. 2008-06-06
    soldstatus $68,000
21. 1998-11-17
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 1998-11-17
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $259 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$517/yr (+$43/mo · 199.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$259
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$973
• After-tax cash flow: $4,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listed $79,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $259 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.