224 Orduna Dr · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$39,999

None bd · None ba · 7,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1977 Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vacant lot in Mineral Springs

Key facts

• Well established sod
• Not in flood zone
• Cleared lot

Tags

• HIGH AND DRY LOT
• NOT IN FLOOD ZONE
• CAPPED WELL ALREADY
• CLEARED LOT
• WELL ESTABLISHED SOD
• UTILITIES ALL HERE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $40k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,399 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.29%
• DSCR: 6.57
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $63,109
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.78×
• Total profit: $131,887
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $39,999

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,197	-5% $1,183	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,155	+10% $1,142
Rent	-10% $1,025	-5% $1,097	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,242	+10% $1,314
Rate	-1.0pp $1,189	-0.5pp $1,179	base $1,169	+0.5pp $1,159	+1.0pp $1,148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,999 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,999 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,999 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,999 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,999 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,999 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,999 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $39,999 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,999 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,999 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,999 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,999 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $39,999 Active
15. 2017-11-30
    soldstatus $8,000 Sold 29-char remark

    Show marketing remark (29 chars)

    Vacant lot in Mineral Springs

16. 2017-11-28
    listed $8,000 Active 29-char remark

    Show marketing remark (29 chars)

    Vacant lot in Mineral Springs

17. 2017-08-06
    historical
18. 2017-04-27
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $14,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,418
• After-tax cash flow: $10,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property is in poor condition with overgrown vegetation and no visible interior or exterior features. Extensive landscaping, roof inspection, and interior and exterior improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major overgrown vegetation — The lot is covered in overgrown vegetation, indicating a lack of maintenance and a need for extensive landscaping and clearing.
• Unknown roof — The roof is not visible in the photo, so its condition cannot be determined.
• Unknown interior walls/paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photo, so their condition cannot be determined.
• Unknown HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanical systems are visible in the photo, so their condition cannot be determined.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping and clearing — Clearing the overgrown vegetation and landscaping the lot will improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both roof inspection and repair — Inspecting and repairing the roof will improve the overall condition and safety of the property, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both interior and exterior painting — Painting the interior and exterior will improve the appearance and curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC and mechanical system inspection and repair — Inspecting and repairing the HVAC and mechanical systems will ensure the property is in good working condition, enhancing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
overgrown vegetation · The lot is covered in overgrown vegetation, indicating a lack of maintenance and a need for extensive landscaping and clearing.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof is not visible in the photo, so its condition cannot be determined.	Unknown	$500–3,000
interior walls/paint · No interior walls or paint are visible in the photo, so their condition cannot be determined.	Unknown	$500–3,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No HVAC or mechanical systems are visible in the photo, so their condition cannot be determined.	Unknown	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$16,500–59,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping and clearing — Clearing the overgrown vegetation and landscaping the lot will improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both roof inspection and repair — Inspecting and repairing the roof will improve the overall condition and safety of the property, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior and exterior painting — Painting the interior and exterior will improve the appearance and curb appeal, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical system inspection and repair — Inspecting and repairing the HVAC and mechanical systems will ensure the property is in good working condition, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $39,999 FSBO.com
• 2017-11-30 Sold (MLS) $8,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-28 Listed $8,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-27 Listed $10,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid