1706 Country Air Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$429,989

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021 Fair condition 7,509 sqft lot Est $413k · at est. $132/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

Key facts

• 7,509 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($798/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 15% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $429,989

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.66%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $413,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1706 Country Air Ln	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,700 (0%)	6mo	$375,000	$139	93
1722 Country Air Ln	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,773 (+3%)	6mo	$419,000	$151	88
1639 Rosedale Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,763 (+2%)	4mo	$399,950	$145	83
1506 Country Air Ln	0.15mi	4/3.5	2,808 (+4%)	4mo	$425,000	$151	82
1919 Waters Branch Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,591 (-4%)	7mo	$439,990	$170	78
1610 Country Air Ln	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,388 (-12%)	0mo	$369,900	$155	78
8726 Windsong Trail Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,517 (-7%)	5mo	$359,900	$143	76
8723 Arbor Trail Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,381 (-12%)	3mo	$365,000	$153	69
8711 Fairbrook Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,413 (-11%)	6mo	$409,900	$170	68
9507 Shaded Tree Dr	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,935 (+9%)	4mo	$445,000	$152	59
1403 Columbia Grove Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	3,076 (+14%)	7mo	$600,000	$195	47
1435 Columbia Grove Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5	3,076 (+14%)	3mo	$660,000	$215	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-54,283
• Equity at exit: $90,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-71,061
• Equity at exit: $83,530

Cash invested: $120,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$1,099 /mo · $13,191/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$992
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,640

Max offer price $429,989

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $188	+0% $66	+5% $-55	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-120	+0% $66	+5% $253	+10% $440
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $176	base $66	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,497
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.29mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.52mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	45d	1	0.70mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	11d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-27
   historical $429,989
2. 2025-12-11
   soldstatus
3. 2025-12-10
   soldstatus Closed 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

4. 2025-11-24
   status Pending 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

5. 2025-11-15
   status Pending 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

6. 2025-10-30
   listed $375,000 Active 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

7. 2025-10-29
   historical
8. 2025-09-05
   historical $3,000
9. 2025-08-29
   price $3,000
10. 2025-08-28
    price $399,000
11. 2025-07-23
    listed $3,250
12. 2025-07-02
    price $425,000
13. 2025-04-19
    listed $439,900 Active
14. 2025-04-18
    historical
15. 2025-04-06
    status Active
16. 2025-04-05
    historical
17. 2025-03-18
    status Active
18. 2025-03-17
    historical
19. 2025-03-02
    price $439,900
20. 2024-06-27
    listed $449,900 Active
21. 2024-06-27
    historical
22. 2024-05-02
    price $465,000
23. 2024-04-25
    price $475,000
24. 2024-04-06
    listed $489,500 Active
25. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2021-04-10
    status Pending
27. 2021-04-07
    listed $360,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $13,191 · $1,099/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,191 · $1,099/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,086
• − Property taxes: −$13,191
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,535
• − Management: −$4,535
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$5,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,417
• After-tax cash flow: $2,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2021-built home in Sienna needs moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly exterior painting and landscaping, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior paint — Some discoloration on the exterior.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown plants and lack of landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value.
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances resale value.
• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances the home's appearance and resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior paint · Some discoloration on the exterior.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown plants and lack of landscaping.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances resale value. ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances the home's appearance and resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+19.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $429,989 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed for Rent $3,250 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $439,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $439,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $449,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed $489,500 HARMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-07 Listed $360,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,191 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.