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1706 Country Air Ln
D- Composite 37.03
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Schools +4.6/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.2/10.0
  • Cash flow +3.7/30.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.3/10.0
  • Condition / age +2.2/5.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0

$399,999

1706 Country Air Ln · Sienna, TX 77459
4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market
Built 2021 Fair condition 7,509 sqft lot Garage $148/sqft · 20% below area Est $518k · 23% under $132/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-story home situated on a spacious lot with NO BACK NEIGHBORS in Sienna! Built in 2021, this lightly lived-in home offers a “new construction” feel with tasteful upgrades throughout. The impressive brick and stone exterior, charming front porch, and oversized balcony create wonderful curb appeal. Inside, enjoy an open-concept design featuring a study off the entry, a gourmet kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, and a bright family room with a wall of windows for plenty of natural light. The first-floor primary suite includes a walk-in closet and a luxurious ensuite bath with a soaking tub, separate shower, and double sinks. Upstairs boasts a large game room, three bedrooms, and two baths. Step outside to a covered patio overlooking the private backyard with a brick fence. Enjoy access to all of Sienna’s resort-style amenities!

Key facts

  • Granite countertops
  • No back neighbors
  • Breakfast bar

Tags

NO BACK NEIGHBORSHOME OFFICEOPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREASTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESGRANITE COUNTERTOPSBREAKFAST BAR

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (34.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (26.5% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $264k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1771 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 10 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $263,814 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.73%
Cap rate
2.77%
Cash-on-cash
-12.57%
DSCR
0.44
GRM
11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$518,232
List price
$399,999
Delta
-22.81%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
9311 Crescent Mill Dr 0.26mi 4/3.0 2,577 (-5%) 3mo $419,900 $163 78
1610 Country Air Ln 0.06mi 4/3.0 2,388 (-12%) 4mo $369,900 $155 75
8831 Morning Glow Dr 0.09mi 4/3.0 2,388 (-12%) 3mo $370,000 $155 74
1907 Creekwood Cv 0.26mi 4/3.0 2,935 (+9%) 2mo $518,888 $177 72
2111 Amelia Way Dr 0.50mi 4/3.5 2,640 (-2%) 2mo $400,000 $152 70
2010 Ironwood Pass Dr 0.37mi 4/3.0 2,529 (-6%) 3mo $574,900 $227 69
8723 Azalea Crossing Via 0.38mi 4/3.0 2,496 (-8%) 1mo $599,000 $240 69
2006 Ironwood Pass Dr 0.37mi 4/3.5 2,922 (+8%) 3mo $600,878 $206 65
8906 Stanley Oak Dr 0.48mi 4/3.0 2,381 (-12%) 1mo $384,900 $162 57
2326 Calm Channel Ct 0.71mi 4/3.5 2,526 (-6%) 2mo $412,000 $163 52
9510 Spring Rose Dr 0.68mi 3/3.5 (-1) 2,831 (+5%) 2mo $588,989 $208 52
9714 Falling Leaf Dr 0.65mi 4/3.5 3,067 (+14%) 3mo $640,000 $209 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.6%
Equity multiple
-0.11×
Total profit
$-124,852
Equity at exit
$83,891
10-year hold
IRR
-30.8%
Equity multiple
-0.92×
Total profit
$-215,526
Equity at exit
$77,704

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
148 active · 29 under contract
Months of supply
28.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$540,945 ($190/sqft)
Median days on market
139 d
This list price
7% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY
-0.8%
Rents YoY
-0.1%
Active inventory
1771
Price-to-rent
11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,940 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,098
Tax from tax record
$1,099 /mo · $13,191/yr
Insurance
$167
HOA
$132
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$617
Net cashflow
$-1,173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,425
Max offer price $263,814
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-947 -5% $-1,060 +0% $-1,173 +5% $-1,286 +10% $-1,399
Rent -10% $-1,405 -5% $-1,289 +0% $-1,173 +5% $-1,057 +10% $-941
Rate -1.0pp $-972 -0.5pp $-1,071 base $-1,173 +0.5pp $-1,277 +1.0pp $-1,382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$100,000
Closing costs
$12,000
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 11 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.5 2990 $3,400 $1.14 81d 1 0.17mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.5 1858 $2,500 $1.35 24d 1 0.20mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.0 2812 $1,495 $0.53 24d 1 0.21mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 3.0 2051 $2,200 $1.07 10d 1 0.24mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.5 2143 $6,000 $2.80 117d 1 0.29mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX 4.0 3.0 2140 $6,000 $2.80 71d 1 0.52mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 3.0 1979 $3,000 $1.52 139d 1 0.70mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.0 1780 $2,000 $1.12 45d 1 0.87mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 3.0 2800 $3,499 $1.25 47d 1 1.16mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX 3.0 2.5 2337 $2,750 $1.18 74d 1 1.18mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX 4.0 2.5 3036 $3,595 $1.18 106d 1 1.25mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Ownership: Full Ownership
HOA & community
Association (SPRAI) with annual feeAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, pickleball, basketball court, sport courts, dog park, playground, park, trails, picnic area, party/meeting roomAssociation fee billed annually and includes clubhouse and recreation facilitiesCommunity features include community pool, curbs, golf, and gutters

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener (2 spaces)
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyFull ownershipBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roofConcrete road frontageNear golf courseLocated in a subdivisionPond on lotSide yard
Construction
Brick and cement siding constructionBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
Exterior features
BalconyCovered patioDeckFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigationPorchPatioPrivate yardTennis court(s)Association pool

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric ovenFree-standing rangeDisposalMicrowaveOvenGranite countersKitchen islandBreakfast barPantryWalk-in pantryKitchen/family room combo
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom on first floor (15x13)Bedroom on second floor (12x12)Bedroom on second floor (16x11)Bedroom on second floor (12x12)
Flooring
CarpetTile
Bathrooms
Three full bathroomsOne half bathroomPrimary bathroom on first floorDouble vanitySoaking tubSeparate showerHollywood bath
Heating & cooling
Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features
Breakfast barBalconyDouble vanityEntrance foyerGranite countersHollywood bathKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboBath in primary bedroomPantrySoaking tubSeparate showerWalk-in pantryWindow treatmentsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coverings
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupUtility room on first floor

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $399,999 Active 79 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $399,999 Active 78 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $399,999 Active 77 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $399,999 Active 76 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $399,999 Active 75 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $399,999 Active 74 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $399,999 Active 73 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $399,999 Active 72 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $399,999 Active 71 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $399,999 Active 70 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 69 DOM
  12. 2026-09-13
    price $399,999 Active 68 DOM
  13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $402,989 Active 68 DOM
  14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $402,989 Active 67 DOM
  15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $402,989 Active 61 DOM
  16. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on market $402,989 Active 60 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $420,989 Active 56 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $420,989 Active 55 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $420,989 Active 54 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $420,989 Active 53 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $420,989 Active 52 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $420,989 Active 50 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $420,989 Active 49 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $420,989 Active 48 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $420,989 Active 47 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $420,989 Active 46 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $420,989 Active 45 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $420,989 Active 44 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $420,989 Active 43 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    pricedays on market $420,989 Active 42 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $429,989 Active 41 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $429,989 Active 40 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $429,989 Active 39 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $429,989 Active 38 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $429,989 Active 37 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $429,989 Active 36 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $429,989 Active 35 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $429,989 Active 34 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $429,989 Active 33 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $429,989 Active 31 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $429,989 Active 30 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $429,989 Active 29 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $429,989 Active 28 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $429,989 Active 25 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $429,989 Active 23 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $429,989 Active 22 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $429,989 Active 20 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $429,989 Active 18 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $429,989 Active 17 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $429,989 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$13,191 · $1,099/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$13,191 · $1,099/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,279
− Mortgage interest
−$22,406
− Property taxes
−$13,191
− Insurance
−$2,000
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,822
− Management
−$2,822
− HOA
−$1,584
− Depreciation
−$11,636
Taxable loss
−$21,183
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$5,084
After-tax cash flow
$-8,992/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $67,500–$121,500 screening

This 2021-built home in Sienna needs moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly exterior painting and landscaping, to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

  • Minor Exterior paint — Some discoloration on the exterior.
  • Minor Landscaping — Overgrown plants and lack of landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value.
  • Resale Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and home value.
  • Both Replace worn flooring — Enhances both resale and rental value.
  • Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances resale value.
  • Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances the home's appearance and resale value.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District
Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID
4819650
Math proficiency
44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency
53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$82,360
Composite
44.61/100
National rank
#2779
State rank
#140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place
Sienna, TX
County
Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
84,221
Household income
$129,151
Rent vs Own
14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden
20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,004,526 people
By 2030
1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040
1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050
1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075
2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100
2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity
White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 7%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home
73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+19.1% since first listed
30 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-06 Listed $429,989 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-28 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-05-28 Listed $429,989 HARMLS
  • 2026-05-27 Coming Soon HARMLS
  • 2025-12-11 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2025-12-10 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2025-11-24 Pending HARMLS
  • 2025-11-15 Pending HARMLS
  • 2025-10-30 Listed $375,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-10-29 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-09-05 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-08-29 Price Changed $3,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-08-28 Price Changed $399,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-07-23 Listed for Rent $3,250 HARMLS
  • 2025-07-02 Price Changed $425,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-19 Listed $439,900 HARMLS
  • 2025-04-18 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-04-06 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2025-04-05 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-03-18 Relisted HARMLS
  • 2025-03-17 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2025-03-02 Price Changed $439,900 HARMLS
  • 2024-06-27 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2024-06-27 Listed $449,900 HARMLS
  • 2024-05-02 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-04-25 Price Changed $475,000 HARMLS
  • 2024-04-06 Listed $489,500 HARMLS
  • 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) HARMLS
  • 2021-04-10 Pending HARMLS
  • 2021-04-07 Listed $360,999 HARMLS

Property tax history

+59.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,191 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…