20707 Walnut St · Dunnellon, FL 34431

$168,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1923 6,098 sqft lot Est $236k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$$OPPORTUNITY IS KNOCKING$$ DUPLEX/HAIR SALON/VINTAGE HISTORIC HOME ON WALNUT ST DUNNELLON FL. HOME OF THE WORLD FAMOUS, CRYSTAL CLEAR, SPRING FED, RAINBOW RIVER 20MINUTES TO "WORLD CLASS" & INTERNATIONALLY REKNOWNED "WORLD EQUESTRIAN CENTER" IN WEST OCALA. THIS 1428 SQ FT FRONT PORCH SITTIN" HISTORIC VILLAGE 1923 SOILD BUILT, VINTAGE "ROARING 20'S" HOME IS A RARE FORND. OWN A PIECE OF HISTORY WHILE LIVING AMONGST THE ANTIGUE SHOPS, AND NEIGHBORS WHO TAKE PRIDE IN PRESERVING "OLD FLORIDA CHARM" AND ADORE THE "OLD WORLD CRAFTSMANSHIP" OF DAYS GONE BY. THIS IS THE HOMEAND THE $$$DEAL$$$ BELOW MARKET NOT AT MARKET. THIS CAN BE THAT

Key facts

• Front porch
• Historic village
• Duplex

Tags

• DUPLEX
• VINTAGE HISTORIC HOME
• FRONT PORCH
• HISTORIC VILLAGE
• OLD WORLD CRAFTSMANSHIP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Zoned RBO

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed front porch; Porch; Sidewalk; Wood fencing; Cleared, level and oversized lot; Located in city limits and a historic district; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Wood flooring; Living room wood-burning fireplace; Storage rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups inside (laundry room); Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $483 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,972 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.27%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,620
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11765 Bostick St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (0%)	10mo	$235,000	$165	66
11948 Hale St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (+5%)	13mo	$283,143	$189	65
20327 The Granada	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-4%)	14mo	$200,000	$145	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,456
• Equity at exit: $25,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $42,684
• Equity at exit: $14,569

Cash invested: $47,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,070 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,384/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $168,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $530	+0% $483	+5% $435	+10% $387
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $401	+0% $483	+5% $564	+10% $646
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $525	base $483	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,125
• Closing costs: $5,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11745 W Shenandoah Way Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$1,745	$0.95	21d	1	1.46mi
2186 W G Martinelli Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,950	$1.35	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $168,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,461 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $198,461 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,461 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $198,461 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $198,461 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $198,461 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $198,461 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $198,461 Pending 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,461 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,461 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $198,461 Active
15. 2021-07-26
    soldstatus $139,900
16. 1996-11-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,439
• − Property taxes: −$2,384
• − Insurance: −$842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,987
• − Management: −$1,987
• − Depreciation: −$4,902
• Taxable income: $3,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$791
• After-tax cash flow: $5,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunnellon, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 20,859
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 72.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+561.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $198,461 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $139,900 Public Records
• 1996-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,384 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.