1401 Winfield Dr · Hoover, AL 35022

$194,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · SingleFamily · 140 Days on market

Built 1999 0.71 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 1999 manufactured home. This home boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and has not one but 2 living areas to enjoy. Located in Shannon Alabama this home is convenient to downtown and Ross Bridge. Come see what this home has to offer with a . 75 acre fully fenced in yard. Metal roof was installed in 2014

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 2 living areas
• Fully fenced in yard

Tags

• 2 LIVING AREAS
• FULLY FENCED IN YARD
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 2.4% in Hoover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in AL, #630 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.8%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $194k implies a 1942% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.38%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $512,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3135 Sawyer Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,304 (+3%)	2mo	$487,500	$212	55
3287 Sawyer Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,412 (+8%)	1mo	$515,000	$214	48
3159 Sawyer Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,045 (-9%)	8mo	$485,000	$237	42
3275 Sawyer Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,110 (-6%)	11mo	$480,500	$228	42
3345 Sawyer Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,436 (+9%)	13mo	$470,000	$193	41
3221 Sawyer Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,400 (+7%)	15mo	$490,000	$204	40
3130 Sawyer Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,027 (-10%)	8mo	$470,000	$232	38
3447 Sawyer Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	3mo	$440,000	$229	36
3455 Sawyer Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	3mo	$469,000	$244	35
3466 Sawyer Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	4mo	$440,000	$229	35
3469 Sawyer Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	16mo	$461,000	$240	23
3127 Sawyer Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,920 (-14%)	16mo	$453,000	$236	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $57,006
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $213,440
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35022

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Rents YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $587/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $1,149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,452

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,258	-5% $1,204	+0% $1,149	+5% $1,094	+10% $1,039
Rent	-10% $919	-5% $1,034	+0% $1,149	+5% $1,263	+10% $1,378
Rate	-1.0pp $1,246	-0.5pp $1,198	base $1,149	+0.5pp $1,098	+1.0pp $1,047

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Birchall Ln Hoover, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1194	$2,343	$1.96	2d	13	0.71mi
2197 Samuel Pass Hoover, AL	4.0	3.0	2050	$3,450	$1.68	15d	1	0.77mi
1819 Winnepeg Cir Bessemer, AL	4.0	3.0	2638	$2,906	$1.10	2d	1	1.04mi
2460 Mountain Dr Hoover, AL	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,499	$1.08	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    price $194,000 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Welcome home to this 1999 manufactured home. This home boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and has not one but 2 living areas to enjoy. Located in Shannon Alabama this home is convenient to downtown and Ross Bridge. Come see what this home has to offer with a . 75 acre fully fenced in yard. Metal roof was installed in 2014

15. 2026-01-29
    listed $200,000 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Welcome home to this 1999 manufactured home. This home boasts 4 bedrooms and 2 baths and has not one but 2 living areas to enjoy. Located in Shannon Alabama this home is convenient to downtown and Ross Bridge. Come see what this home has to offer with a . 75 acre fully fenced in yard. Metal roof was installed in 2014

16. 2005-09-21
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 35.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$587
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $11,225
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,694
• After-tax cash flow: $11,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Hoover

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #630

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 76,805
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,126
• Household income: $81,846
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 41% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.40%
• Current HPI: 219.3839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.80%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1942.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $194,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $200,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2005-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $587 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.