631 Parade St · Erie, PA 16503

$149,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1902 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Take advantage of this wonderful opportunity to add to your investment portfolio in Erie! This unique property has 2 full size brick buildings that have the old construction charm to them. They also have original hardwood floors throughout. The first building is 1500sq ft with 3 beds, 1 bath and a full basement. It has a gas fireplace, a new roof in 2019 and a new furnace as of 2021. The second building was used most recently as a private art studio. It's a full 2 stories with 2600 sqft to use and has 2 separate entrances. There is a kitchen on the 2nd level and a bathroom. You can easily modify this one to a multi unit building by itself. It has a full basement and some plumbing set up t

Key facts

• New furnace
• Gas fireplace
• Private art studio

Tags

• FULL SIZE BRICK BUILDINGS
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• PRIVATE ART STUDIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: C-4
• Financial info: Property operates as residential income (multi-family); Actual rent listed for units: $1,027 for the 3-bed unit; $1,027 for the 2-bed unit

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential income property; Two-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One unit with 3 bedrooms; One unit with 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One unit with 1 bathroom; One unit with 1 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Fireplace; Basement tenant use

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $150k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 E 11th St	0.41mi	4/1.0	1,513 (+1%)	4mo	$85,000	$56	76
318 Parade St	0.26mi	4/1.5	1,480 (-2%)	9mo	$135,000	$91	76
348 E 4th St	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,540 (+2%)	11mo	$135,000	$88	71
524 E 2nd St	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,496 (-0%)	11mo	$75,000	$50	67
716 Wallace St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-13%)	10mo	$75,200	$57	60
633 E 11th St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,347 (-10%)	2mo	$60,000	$45	55
422 E 14th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,632 (+8%)	6mo	$87,500	$54	53
301 Holland St	0.40mi	4/1.0	1,320 (-12%)	12mo	$55,000	$42	51
403 Ash St	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,386 (-8%)	13mo	$130,000	$94	50
314 E 13th St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,320 (-12%)	5mo	$93,000	$70	50
734 E 7th St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	8mo	$81,000	$61	47
715 E 7th St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (-12%)	11mo	$58,500	$44	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $47,220
• Equity at exit: $91,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $134,653
• Equity at exit: $164,116

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,170/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	0.37mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	43d	1	0.42mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	1.01mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	43d	1	1.06mi
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	43d	1	1.21mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-03
   listed $149,900 Active
5. 2001-11-09
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,170 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,269 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$99/yr (+$8/mo · 4.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,170
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,277
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$307
• After-tax cash flow: $1,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+172.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-02-10 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-12-03 Listed $149,900 GEBOR
• 2001-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,170 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.