2016 Tarpon Bay Dr N #202 · Island Walk, FL 34119

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2004 $948/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful townhome in Bimini Bay III at Tarpon Bay Condo, offering a spacious and thoughtfully designed layout with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a versatile den/office. All bedrooms feature walk-in closets, providing abundant storage, while the expansive screened balcony creates the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining. The home also features a separate laundry room with a full-size washer and dryer and a 2-car garage with additional guest parking available. Residents enjoy a variety of amenities, including a private beach with a pier, community pool and spa, as well as tennis and basketball courts, all within a well-maintained gated community.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Screened balcony
• Private beach

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SCREENED BALCONY
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIVATE BEACH
• COMMUNITY POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions
• HOA & community: Quarterly association fee; HOA covers management, amenities, grounds and structure maintenance, parking and security; Community amenities include beach rights, basketball court, billiard room, business center, clubhouse, fitness center, library, barbecue/picnic area, playground, pool, spa/hot tub, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered garage; 2 covered garage spaces
• Security: Phone entry; Security/high impact doors
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Attached property (condo/attached unit); 2 stories; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Balcony; Screened balcony/porch; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Upper-level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: First floor entry; Kitchen island; Main living area on upper level; Pantry; Upper-level primary bedroom; Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,554/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) (locally 741% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $376,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.35%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-19,068
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,716
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,554 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$948
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,166
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,331

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	23d	1	0.06mi
2004 Tarpon Bay Dr N #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,450	$1.39	23d	1	0.06mi
2001 Tarpon Bay Dr N #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1620	$5,400	$3.33	23d	1	0.06mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,791	$2.35	13d	56	0.15mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	23d	1	0.23mi
1634 Tarpon Bay Dr S #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2170	$6,000	$2.76	13d	1	0.23mi
1628 Cayman Ct #2 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$6,500	$3.46	23d	1	0.33mi
1761 Tarpon Bay Dr S #58 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1879	$3,299	$1.76	23d	1	0.33mi
1710 Tarpon Bay Dr S Unit 4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$2,200	$1.43	13d	1	0.39mi
6051 Shallows Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,000	$2.50	23d	1	0.64mi
10020 Heather Ln Unit 9-904 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	23d	1	0.68mi
6215 Wilshire Pines Cir #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$4,500	$2.83	23d	1	0.69mi
10033 Heather Ln Unit 5-502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.70mi
15145 Palmer Lake Cir #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$7,000	$4.46	23d	1	0.72mi
6325 Wilshire Pines Cir #308 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1577	$5,000	$3.17	13d	1	0.76mi
15181 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$7,500	$3.49	13d	1	0.84mi
15177 Butler Lake Dr #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$8,500	$3.95	13d	1	0.86mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$4,272	$3.83	13d	68	0.92mi
5045 Cedar Springs Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1427	$4,200	$2.94	23d	1	0.95mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.97mi
2740 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,488	$2.34	23d	3	0.99mi
5105 Cedar Springs Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$7,000	$4.24	23d	1	0.99mi
2790 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$5,000	$3.25	23d	2	1.01mi
5125 Cedar Springs Dr #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2177	$5,650	$2.60	23d	1	1.03mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	1.03mi
2525 Aspen Creek Ln #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,500	$2.94	23d	1	1.07mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	23d	1	1.08mi
5360 Andover Dr #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1928	$6,500	$3.37	23d	1	1.11mi
2820 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,748	$2.99	23d	3	1.11mi
5693 Heron Ln #502 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,800	$4.56	23d	1	1.12mi
5330 Andover Dr #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,550	$1.47	23d	1	1.14mi
1156 Oakes Blvd Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$7,500	$4.83	23d	1	1.15mi
5325 Andover Dr #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1654	$5,250	$3.17	23d	1	1.16mi
5130 Cobble Creek Ct Unit B202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,800	$1.37	13d	1	1.17mi
5705 Heron Ln #806 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$7,000	$4.55	23d	1	1.19mi
2600 Marshcreek Ln #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,595	$1.47	13d	1	1.20mi
2868 Tiburon Blvd E #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2420	$15,000	$6.20	23d	1	1.21mi
2868 Tiburon Blvd E #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2420	$15,000	$6.20	21d	1	1.21mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	23d	1	1.21mi
2864 Tiburon Blvd E #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2159	$13,500	$6.25	13d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $948 · $11,376/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $400,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $400,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $400,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $400,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $400,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $400,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $400,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $400,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $400,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $400,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $400,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $400,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $400,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $400,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $400,000
16. 2026-04-30
    price $430,000
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $475,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,320 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$812/yr (+$68/mo · 32.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,332
• − Management: −$5,332
• − HOA: −$11,376
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $6,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $10,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Island Walk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #14444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $400,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $430,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $475,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,508 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.