424 Baker Cir · Ames, TX 77575

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2012 9,687 sqft lot Est $111k · 8% over ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this lovely 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a spacious open-concept living area with a cozy fireplace. The master suite offers a walk-in closet and a luxurious en-suite bathroom. Enjoy the beautifully landscaped backyard with a covered patio, perfect for outdoor entertaining. This property is a must-see for those seeking a comfortable and stylish living space.

Key facts

• Landscaped backyard
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• LANDSCAPED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; No additional parking features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2012; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Gas oven and oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,232 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Liberty ISD (town): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #464 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Middle (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 557 students, 68% FRL); Liberty H S (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 707 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.48%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,925
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 Baker Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,146 (-10%)	23mo	$99,999	$87	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,898
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $31,545
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77575

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,084/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 402-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $120,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,084 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,084 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,084
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $3,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827450
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,931
• Composite: 32.11/100
• National rank: #5803
• State rank: #464 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ames

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1232
• US rank: #21538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ames, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,617

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.17%
• Current HPI: 204.9372
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listed $150,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,084 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.