4796 W Santa Maria Dr · Arivaca Junction, AZ 85645

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1972 10,541 sqft lot $144/sqft · 30% below area Est $214k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 62 x 157 x 76 x 151; Lot size approximately 10,541 sq ft; Zoned Arivaca - CR3
• HOA & community: Paved street

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered/carport space
• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved road access; North/South lot exposure; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double pane windows; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#146 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sopori Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 109 students, 77% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Sahuarita High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #212 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 1,146 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sahuarita Unified District (4411) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,970 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,941
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -29.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4796 W Santa Maria Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$125	99
4760 W Tumacacori Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-4%)	12mo	$220,000	$220	71
4922 W De La Canoa Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,156 (+11%)	2mo	$213,000	$184	64
4872 W Santa Maria Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,172 (+13%)	8mo	$230,000	$196	63
4801 W De La Canoa Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	914 (-12%)	23mo	$174,900	$191	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,740
• Equity at exit: $56,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $56,109
• Equity at exit: $78,921

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85645

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $156	+0% $113	+5% $71	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $10	-5% $62	+0% $113	+5% $164	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $151	base $113	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1181-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $150,000 Active 1181-char remark
3. 2023-12-05
   status Pending 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

4. 2023-11-28
   soldstatus $135,000 Closed 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

5. 2023-11-28
   soldstatus $135,000

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

6. 2023-10-20
   historical Active Contingent 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

7. 2023-10-12
   price $135,000 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

8. 2023-10-03
   listed $155,000 Active 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AN INVESTOR. Property listed below fair market price. Property being sold in its present physical condition . Home Features 3 bedrooms ,one bath, single carport/storage room/ work shop ,fenced back yard.

9. 2023-10-02
   historical
10. 2023-09-26
    listed $155,000 Active
11. 1972-10-01
    soldstatus $18,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$285
• After-tax cash flow: $1,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arivaca Junction

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #17219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arivaca Junction, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 1,317

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 44% Two or more races 33% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Current HPI: 223.2301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+606.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-15 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-06 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-12-05 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-28 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-20 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-12 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-03 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-09-26 Listed $155,000 MLSSAZ
• 1972-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.