654 E Ranch Rd #62 · San Tan Valley, AZ 85140

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 76 Days on market

Built 1967 ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this single-story home featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and carport parking! Enjoy peaceful mornings or relaxing afternoons on the welcoming front patio. What are you waiting for? Make it yours before it's gone!

Key facts

• Parking
• Community pool
• Built 1967

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Land lease of $800 per month; No association fees; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Built-up roof
• Exterior features: East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front and back; Heated spa; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating and cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Eat-in kitchen; Dual-pane windows; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $14k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 101.6% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• J O Combs Unified School District (4445) (rural): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #109 of 249 in AZ (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($14k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 101.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 340.23%
• DSCR: 16.14
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $39,600
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
747 E Germann Rd #55	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	728 (+1%)	1mo	$40,000	$55	83
747 E Germann Rd #49	0.20mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	11mo	$24,000	$33	79
747 E Germann Rd #19	0.20mi	2/1.0	660 (-8%)	1mo	$16,000	$24	76
747 E Germann Rd #99	0.26mi	2/1.5	780 (+8%)	1mo	$50,000	$64	71
747 E Germann Rd #135	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	660 (-8%)	4mo	$43,000	$65	68
747 E Germann Rd #70	0.36mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (-3%)	11mo	$8,900	$13	64
747 E Germann Rd #10	0.20mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	22mo	$19,500	$25	57
437 E Germann Rd #24	0.37mi	2/1.0	800 (+11%)	13mo	$51,000	$64	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.98×
• Total profit: $71,322
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 37.05×
• Total profit: $151,409
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85140

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 837
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $1,191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $131

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,201	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,191	+5% $1,186	+10% $1,180
Rent	-10% $1,061	-5% $1,126	+0% $1,191	+5% $1,256	+10% $1,320
Rate	-1.0pp $1,198	-0.5pp $1,195	base $1,191	+0.5pp $1,187	+1.0pp $1,183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $15,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $15,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $15,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $15,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $15,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $15,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $15,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $15,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $15,000
17. 2026-04-06
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 86% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $14,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,586
• After-tax cash flow: $10,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: J O Combs Unified School District (4445)
• NCES district ID: 0403990
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,053
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7314
• State rank: #109 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 95,704
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 51,260
• Household income: $101,477
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.81%
• Current HPI: 268.1579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $15,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $20,000 ARMLS