833 High Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78070

$64,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1996 0.53 ac lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 154 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision legal name: INDIAN HILLS EST 3

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service by PEC; Water service by Texas Water; Septic system; Garbage service by Hill Country
• Home design: Pre-owned property; Other building exterior (see remarks); Other foundation (see remarks); Other roof type (see remarks); Approximate age: 29 years
• Construction: Other building exterior (see remarks); Other foundation (see remarks); Other roof type (see remarks); Built approximately 29 years ago
• Exterior features: Subdivision: INDIAN HILLS; Lot size approximately 0.527 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen: 14 x 8
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom: 15 x 14 with ceiling fan and full bath; Bedroom 2: 11 x 10; Bedroom 3: 11 x 10
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom: 11 x 9 with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; One living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $64k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $64k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 633 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $442 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.35%
• DSCR: 3.60
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,704
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7947 Caribou	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+2%)	8mo	$175,000	$109	55
4006 Deerslayer	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	6mo	$214,900	$128	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $45,186
• Equity at exit: $9,543

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $111,059
• Equity at exit: $5,534

Cash invested: $17,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78070

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,737 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$336
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,665/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $64,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,000
• Closing costs: $1,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 High Dr Unit A Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,500	$1.17	4d	1	0.50mi
229 High Dr Unit B Spring Branch, TX	2.0	2.5	1283	$1,690	$1.32	43d	1	0.50mi
109 High Dr Spring Branch, TX	2.0	3.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	43d	1	0.53mi
1197 Chisolm Trl Unit A Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,450	$1.18	43d	1	0.60mi
2519 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	14d	1	0.78mi
2519 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	23d	1	0.78mi
2455 Golf Dr Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,550	$1.24	43d	1	0.78mi
184 Crestview Ln Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,495	$1.30	43d	1	0.87mi
418 Cimarron Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,595	$1.46	23d	1	0.96mi
418 Cimarron Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	0.96mi
107 Virginia Way Spring Branch, TX	3.0	2.0	1294	$1,600	$1.24	23d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   historical Active Option
3. 2026-01-27
   price $64,000
4. 2026-01-21
   price $74,000
5. 2026-01-12
   price $84,000
6. 2026-01-07
   price $94,000
7. 2025-12-09
   listed $99,000 New
8. 2025-09-12
   soldstatus
9. 1984-08-15
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,665 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,585
• − Property taxes: −$1,665
• − Insurance: −$320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,668
• − Management: −$1,668
• − Depreciation: −$1,862
• Taxable income: $10,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $8,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,200
• Household income: $115,175
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.35%
• Current HPI: 233.2875
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-01-30 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $64,000 LERA
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $74,000 LERA
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $84,000 LERA
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $94,000 LERA
• 2025-12-09 Listed $99,000 LERA
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,665 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.