5057 Jim Goggans Rd · Sumiton, AL 35062

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,600 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1999 2.00 ac lot Est $247k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautiful property offers the perfect blend of space, comfort, and functionality. Featuring a large open floor plan, this home is ideal for entertaining and everyday living. The spacious dining room flows seamlessly into the main living area, while the split-bedroom design offers privacy and comfort. The kitchen is a chef’s dream with a large island and you’ll love relaxing by the fireplace on cool evenings. An additional den provides even more living space—perfect for a playroom, office, or second living area. All this, plus acreage and located in the highly sought-after Bagley School District. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Sumiton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#270 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bagley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 563 students, 44% FRL); Corner High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #90 of 305 statewide, top 35%, 504 students, 41% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Jefferson County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,274 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.67%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4960 Hollis Goodwin Rd	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,430 (-6%)	5mo	$230,000	$95	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $95,009
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $290,747
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35062

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $168,355

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-06-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-02
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2025-04-19
   historical $199,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$6,166
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,480
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Sumiton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #18280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,270
• Population (ZIP): 8,674

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.99%
• Current HPI: 260.41
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-02 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-04-19 Coming Soon $199,900 Greater Alabama MLS