619 Beuatyberry Way · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$299,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,182 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2026 $137/sqft · 23% below area Est $389k · 23% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this, a one-story masterpiece that feels instantly alive the moment you walk through the door. This 4-bedroom stunner is crafted for those who crave style without sacrificing comfort. Discover the Dawson home plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story residence that embodies modern living and comfort. The heart of this home is an open-concept family room that effortlessly merges with the dining area and kitchen, creating a welcoming space for gatherings and everyday living. This home features the AW Collection® Timeless. As the name suggests, Timeless is a beauty in any era-or zip code. Like a fine-cut suit or cocktail dress, this look is elegant and smooth. Perfect for afternoon tea and a dash of Southern hospitality around the garden's fresh-cut tulips.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 60 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,091 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,040
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: -22.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5030 Field Sparrow Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,180 (-0%)	2mo	$324,990	$149	76
5606 Buttonbush Ct	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,016 (-8%)	0mo	$341,240	$169	76
5011 Field Sparrow Ln	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,182 (0%)	2mo	$426,881	$196	74
5002 Field Sparrow Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,182 (0%)	1mo	$472,328	$216	74
5110 Nesbit Path	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,318 (+6%)	2mo	$475,000	$205	70
206 Afton June Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,219 (+2%)	1mo	$375,000	$169	68
5011 Bowen Prairie Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+4%)	0mo	$366,988	$162	66
322 Big Pine Trl	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+2%)	0mo	$359,000	$161	66
5011 Cedar Sage Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,388 (+9%)	1mo	$375,000	$157	56
311 Eileen Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+12%)	1mo	$397,900	$163	55
123 Blue River Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,015 (-8%)	1mo	$360,000	$179	51
5050 Bowen Prairie Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,924 (-12%)	2mo	$339,697	$177	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,803
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-119,634
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $250,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-135	-5% $-239	+0% $-342	+5% $-446	+10% $-550
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-429	+0% $-342	+5% $-256	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-266	base $-342	+0.5pp $-420	+1.0pp $-499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $299,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $319,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $319,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,990 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    price $319,990 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Step into this, a one-story masterpiece that feels instantly alive the moment you walk through the door. This 4-bedroom stunner is crafted for those who crave style without sacrificing comfort. Discover the Dawson home plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story residence that embodies modern living and comfort. The heart of this home is an open-concept family room that effortlessly merges with the dining area and kitchen, creating a welcoming space for gatherings and everyday living. This home features the AW Collection® Timeless. As the name suggests, Timeless is a beauty in any era-or zip code. Like a fine-cut suit or cocktail dress, this look is elegant and smooth. Perfect for afternoon tea and a dash of Southern hospitality around the garden's fresh-cut tulips.

13. 2026-05-13
    price $329,990 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Step into this, a one-story masterpiece that feels instantly alive the moment you walk through the door. This 4-bedroom stunner is crafted for those who crave style without sacrificing comfort. Discover the Dawson home plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story residence that embodies modern living and comfort. The heart of this home is an open-concept family room that effortlessly merges with the dining area and kitchen, creating a welcoming space for gatherings and everyday living. This home features the AW Collection® Timeless. As the name suggests, Timeless is a beauty in any era-or zip code. Like a fine-cut suit or cocktail dress, this look is elegant and smooth. Perfect for afternoon tea and a dash of Southern hospitality around the garden's fresh-cut tulips.

14. 2026-04-17
    listed $349,990 Active 776-char remark

    Show marketing remark (776 chars)

    Step into this, a one-story masterpiece that feels instantly alive the moment you walk through the door. This 4-bedroom stunner is crafted for those who crave style without sacrificing comfort. Discover the Dawson home plan, a thoughtfully designed one-story residence that embodies modern living and comfort. The heart of this home is an open-concept family room that effortlessly merges with the dining area and kitchen, creating a welcoming space for gatherings and everyday living. This home features the AW Collection® Timeless. As the name suggests, Timeless is a beauty in any era-or zip code. Like a fine-cut suit or cocktail dress, this look is elegant and smooth. Perfect for afternoon tea and a dash of Southern hospitality around the garden's fresh-cut tulips.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$9,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,267
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Listed $349,990 Zillow