3811 Sailmaker Ln · Holiday, FL 34691

$117,450

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Condo public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1988 $528/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom two bath split plan condo with direct access overlooking the pond. Come see for yourself the beautiful view, tile in all the right places. A/C system has been replaced in June 04.

Key facts

• Pond view
• Open floor plan
• Covered parking

Tags

• POND VIEW
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE PATIO
• COVERED PARKING
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total annual association fees listed as $6,336; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Holiday Lake Villas Civic Association; Monthly condo/HOA fee $528 (includes cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves fund, internet); Association requires approval for buyers; Association amenities include pool, sidewalks, community mailbox, deed restrictions, wheelchair access, association-owned recreation; Senior community; Pets allowed (dogs and cats), max pet weight 25 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Internet available
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story; South-facing; Completed / move-in ready
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; Total lot about 0.19 acres
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Pond frontage (30 feet); On waterfront (pond); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Split bedroom floorplan; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer (included); Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-882/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (11.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Holiday — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 389 students, 90% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $117k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,356 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-24,914
• Equity at exit: $17,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-32,546
• Equity at exit: $10,155

Cash invested: $32,886 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,463/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$528
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $104,469

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-40	+0% $-73	+5% $-107	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-140	+0% $-73	+5% $-7	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $-14	-0.5pp $-44	base $-73	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,362
• Closing costs: $3,524
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	26d	1	0.09mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	26d	1	0.27mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	24d	1	0.28mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	26d	1	0.31mi
477 Sevilla Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,150	$1.88	0d	1	0.37mi
477 Sevilla Ave Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1141	$2,150	$1.88	3d	1	0.37mi
1132 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,838	$1.57	4d	1	0.46mi
1051 Maybury Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,695	$1.66	24d	1	0.47mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	0.58mi
1024 Solar Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	26d	1	0.61mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	7d	1	0.68mi
1024 Hilton Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,549	$1.17	26d	1	0.74mi
3104 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,640	$1.34	26d	1	0.75mi
3054 Primrose Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,500	$1.54	7d	1	0.76mi
1018 Dartmouth Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,495	$1.47	26d	1	0.78mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	26d	1	0.79mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	26d	1	0.85mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	24d	1	0.93mi
1301 Mandarin Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	872	$1,699	$1.95	26d	1	0.95mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	26d	1	1.00mi
1050 Clairborne St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,825	$1.55	7d	1	1.00mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	26d	1	1.04mi
1130 Powersong St Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	17d	1	1.04mi
4836 Flora Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,445	$1.30	26d	1	1.06mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	26d	1	1.07mi
360 Jeru Blvd Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,899	$1.32	16d	1	1.07mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	26d	1	1.10mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	7d	1	1.14mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	26d	1	1.15mi
1254 Firecreek Ct Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	4d	1	1.16mi
1301 Greenlea Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	872	$1,700	$1.95	26d	1	1.17mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	22d	1	1.20mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	1d	1	1.22mi
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,623	$1.60	1d	1	1.25mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	26d	1	1.27mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	7d	1	1.31mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,595	$1.32	0d	1	1.33mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,195	$1.69	0d	1	1.34mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	26d	1	1.34mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	26d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $528 · $6,336/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $117,450 Pending 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,450 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,450 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $117,450 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $117,450 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $117,450 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $117,450 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $117,450 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $117,450 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $121,900
11. 2026-02-19
    status Active
12. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
13. 2026-02-06
    price $123,900
14. 2026-02-05
    price $124,200
15. 2026-01-25
    price $124,500
16. 2026-01-22
    status Active
17. 2026-01-09
    price $125,000
18. 2025-12-10
    price $139,565
19. 2025-12-09
    price $140,000
20. 2025-11-21
    listed $145,000 Active
21. 2024-11-30
    historical
22. 2024-09-22
    price $156,000
23. 2024-05-30
    listed $162,000 Active
24. 2016-08-25
    soldstatus $66,000
25. 2012-12-18
    soldstatus $58,000
26. 2005-01-03
    soldstatus $87,000
27. 2004-09-22
    soldstatus $87,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath split plan condo with direct access overlooking the pond. Come see for yourself the beautiful view, tile in all the right places. A/C system has been replaced in June 04.

28. 2004-08-25
    historical 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath split plan condo with direct access overlooking the pond. Come see for yourself the beautiful view, tile in all the right places. A/C system has been replaced in June 04.

29. 2004-07-18
    listed $91,000 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    Two bedroom two bath split plan condo with direct access overlooking the pond. Come see for yourself the beautiful view, tile in all the right places. A/C system has been replaced in June 04.

30. 1988-11-01
    soldstatus $56,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,463 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,579
• − Property taxes: −$2,463
• − Insurance: −$587
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − HOA: −$6,336
• − Depreciation: −$3,417
• Taxable loss: −$2,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$595
• After-tax cash flow: $-286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+114.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $121,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $123,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $124,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $124,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $139,565 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-22 Price Changed $156,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Listed $162,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-22 Sold (MLS) $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-18 Listed $91,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,463 · +250.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.