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3146 Route 9w Unit 5A
D- Composite 39.81
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +12.8/15.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • Schools +8.1/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.4/5.0
  • Appreciation +2.5/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Cash flow +0.0/30.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Manufactured-home adj. -3.5

$69,900

3146 Route 9w Unit 5A · New Windsor, NY 12553
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 129 Days on market
Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition $89/sqft · 12% below area Est $79k · 12% under $1165/mo HOA · 76% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Brand New Home on Lot #5A! Imagine your bright and modern new home! This lovely home offers comfort, convenience and affordability. The home features an open layout, a kitchen with tons of cabinets and appliances. You'll find two nice bedrooms situated on opposite ends of the home, offering privacy. The primary bedrooms features its own private bathroom. Enjoy a super convenient location – just a quick 5-minute drive to town and less than 10 minutes to both I-84 and I-87. Plus, you're only about an hour from the New York City! This spot is also close to West Point, Stewart Airport, the Beacon Bridge, the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry, Metro-North, and both major highways.

Key facts

  • Close to west point
  • Open layout
  • Private bathroom

Tags

OPEN LAYOUTKITCHEN WITH TONS OF CABINETSPRIVATE BATHROOMCONVENIENT LOCATIONCLOSE TO WEST POINTCLOSE TO STEWART AIRPORT

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-430 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $8k (88.9% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
  • Recommended offer: $8k (88.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate -1.1% vs local median 3.3% in New Windsor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
  • Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
  • Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: HOA is 76% of rent.
  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $7,728 (88.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 89% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
2.21%
Cap rate
-1.08%
Cash-on-cash
-26.34%
DSCR
-0.17
GRM
3.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$79,268
List price
$69,900
Delta
7.11%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
1 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
3146 Route 9W Unit 7A 0.00mi 2/2.0 784 (0%) 5mo $79,268 $101 96
68 Silver Spring Rd 0.30mi 2/1.0 884 (+13%) 10mo $299,999 $339 52
10 Oakwood Ter #120 1.38mi 1/1.0 (-1) 750 (-4%) 10mo $130,000 $173 41
10 Oakwood Ter #85 1.38mi 1/1.0 (-1) 750 (-4%) 12mo $159,500 $213 39
16 Washington Pl 1.33mi 2/1.5 912 (+16%) 0mo $300,000 $329 38
10 Oakwood Ter #118 1.38mi 1/1.0 (-1) 850 (+8%) 7mo $149,999 $176 36
10 Oakwood Ter #88 1.43mi 2/1.0 950 (+21%) 0mo $180,000 $189 36
10 Oakwood Ter #26 1.43mi 2/1.0 944 (+20%) 1mo $165,000 $175 35
70 Johnes St Unit 403E 1.11mi 2/2.0 897 (+14%) 8mo $220,000 $245 34
10 Oakwood Ter #56 1.38mi 1/1.0 (-1) 850 (+8%) 13mo $155,000 $182 31
10 Oakwood Ter #123 1.38mi 2/1.0 900 (+15%) 13mo $189,500 $211 26
45 Clancy Ave 0.89mi 3/1.0 (+1) 980 (+25%) 8mo $250,000 $255 24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-72.6%
Equity multiple
-0.94×
Total profit
$-37,952
Equity at exit
$10,422
10-year hold
IRR
Equity multiple
-2.34×
Total profit
$-65,282
Equity at exit
$6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State New York
15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
2 active
Months of supply
12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$69,900 ($89/sqft)
Median days on market
107 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
+13.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12553

Home prices YoY
-31.7%
Active inventory
204
Price-to-rent
3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,542 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$367
Tax est. 1.5%
$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
Insurance
$29
HOA
$1,165
Lot rent leased land?
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$324
Net cashflow
$-430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,086
Max offer price $7,728
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-381 -5% $-406 +0% $-430 +5% $-454 +10% $-478
Rent -10% $-551 -5% $-491 +0% $-430 +5% $-369 +10% $-308
Rate -1.0pp $-394 -0.5pp $-412 base $-430 +0.5pp $-448 +1.0pp $-466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$17,475
Closing costs
$2,097
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
33 Bay View Ter Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 950 $2,200 $2.32 63d 1 0.71mi
40 Cedar Ln Unit 9 New Windsor, NY 1.0 1.0 770 $1,700 $2.21 63d 1 0.74mi
109 Myrtle Ave New Windsor, NY 2.0 1.0 1079 $2,200 $2.04 93d 1 0.83mi
22 Overlook Pl Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 1013 $2,000 $1.97 70d 1 0.87mi
96 Carson Ave Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 1.0 1.0 1030 $1,450 $1.41 63d 1 0.91mi
34 Cross St New Windsor, NY 2.0 1.0 992 $2,250 $2.27 93d 1 0.94mi
187 Renwick St Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 689 $1,400 $2.03 93d 1 0.94mi
52 Benkard Ave Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 625 $1,700 $2.72 93d 1 1.01mi
22 Benkard Ave Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 3.0 1.0 1075 $1,750 $1.63 93d 1 1.01mi
44 Johnes St Unit 108-J Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 909 $1,950 $2.15 63d 1 1.08mi
43 Edward St Newburgh, NY 1.0–2.0 1.0 650 $2,300 $3.54 63d 1 1.11mi
28 Hasbrouck St Unit A Newburgh, NY 1.0 1.0 550 $1,500 $2.73 93d 1 1.15mi
42 Hasbrouck St Newburgh, NY 3.0 1.5 1008 $2,550 $2.53 93d 1 1.16mi
177 W Parmenter St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 1100 $1,700 $1.55 72d 1 1.20mi
4 Grand St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 900 $2,400 $2.67 72d 1 1.24mi
4 Grand St Unit 2 Newburgh, NY 1.0 1.0 900 $2,500 $2.78 72d 1 1.24mi
27 Clark St Newburgh, NY 3.0 1.0 785 $1,950 $2.48 93d 1 1.24mi
8 William St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 1.0 1.0 800 $1,350 $1.69 63d 1 1.30mi
87 Broadway Unit 2 Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 800 $1,800 $2.25 72d 1 1.32mi
96 Broadway Unit 2B Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 750 $1,750 $2.33 72d 1 1.35mi
167 Liberty St Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 900 $1,900 $2.11 93d 1 1.41mi
33 Lutheran St Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 589 $1,600 $2.72 93d 1 1.44mi
41 Dubois St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 1.0 1.0 1050 $1,175 $1.12 93d 1 1.44mi
52 S Miller St Newburgh, NY 3.0 1.0 889 $1,900 $2.14 93d 1 1.46mi
51 Lander St Unit 1 Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.0 1000 $1,500 $1.50 72d 1 1.49mi
57 Lander St Unit B Newburgh, NY 2.0 1.5 1100 $1,900 $1.73 93d 1 1.50mi
259 1st St Newburgh, NY 3.0 2.0 883 $2,000 $2.27 93d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community
Has associationMonthly association fee of $1,165 (fee covers unspecified items)

Exterior

Parking
Two off-street parking spacesNo carport
Utilities
Electric service by Central HudsonPropane available/connectedElectricity connectedCable availablePhone availableOther sewer service
Home design
Manufactured home (single wide)Single-story
Construction
Single wide manufactured construction
Exterior features
Slab foundationNot waterfrontNo additional parcels

Interior

Kitchen
OvenRangeRefrigerator
Bedrooms
Includes a first-floor bedroom
Bathrooms
Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Forced air heating with propaneDuctwork cooling
Interior features
First-floor bedroomFirst-floor full bathroomPrimary bathroomOpen kitchenWasher/dryer hookupOne-level homeNo basementNo attic
Laundry & utility
Dedicated laundry roomWasher/dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 129 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 128 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $69,900 Active 127 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 126 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 125 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $69,900 Active 124 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 121 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 120 DOM
  9. 2026-07-29
    days on market $84,900 Active 119 DOM
  10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $84,900 Active 117 DOM
  11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $84,900 Active 115 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $84,900 Active 113 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $84,900 Active 112 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $84,900 Active 111 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $84,900 Active 108 DOM
  16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $84,900 Active 106 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $84,900 Active 105 DOM
  18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $84,900 Active 104 DOM
  19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $84,900 Active 103 DOM
  20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $84,900 Active 102 DOM
  21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $84,900 Active 101 DOM
  22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $84,900 Active 100 DOM
  23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $84,900 Active 99 DOM
  24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $84,900 Active 98 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 97 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $84,900 Active 96 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 95 DOM
  28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $84,900 Active 94 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 93 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 92 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 91 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $84,900 Active 90 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $84,900 Active 89 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $84,900 Active 88 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $84,900 Active 87 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $84,900 Active 86 DOM
  37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $84,900 Active 84 DOM
  38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $84,900 Active 82 DOM
  39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $84,900 Active 81 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $84,900 Active 78 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $84,900 Active 77 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $84,900 Active 76 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $84,900 Active 75 DOM
  44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $84,900 Active 73 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $84,900 Active 72 DOM
  46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $84,900 Active 70 DOM
  47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $84,900 Active 69 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,900 Active 68 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,900 Active 67 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 63 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$18,507
− Mortgage interest
−$3,915
− Property taxes
−$1,048
− Insurance
−$350
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,481
− Management
−$1,481
− HOA
−$13,980
− Depreciation
−$2,033
Taxable loss
−$5,781
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,387
After-tax cash flow
$-3,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,920–$11,760 screening

This brand new manufactured home offers a modern and functional living space with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with potential for further value increases through minor cosmetic updates.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting interior walls and ceilings — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

A Composite school gradezoned avg 80/100

Zoned Schools

High Newburgh Free Academy A NY #506/1,100 Nat'l #1,058/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Newburgh City School District
NCES district ID
3620700
Math proficiency
33% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▲ 10.00%
Median HH income
$56,387
Composite
35.46/100
National rank
#4927
State rank
#500 of 590 in NY
C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — New Windsor

Score
68/100
State rank
#529
US rank
#9423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
New Windsor, NY
County
Orange County · 379,830 people
City population
27,384
Metro
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
Population (ZIP)
27,384
Household income
$92,757
Rent vs Own
28.1% rent · 71.9% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
379,830 people
By 2030
378,955 · -0.2%
By 2040
375,444 · -1.2%
By 2050
369,311 · -2.8%
By 2075
354,233 · -6.7%
By 2100
318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
Race & ethnicity
White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born
14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

2024 margin
Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
2008→2024 swing
-12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
All cycles
2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-04-01 Listed $84,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…