5 Smugglers Rowe · Roche Harbor, WA 98250

$1,598,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 1999 1.72 ac lot $1062/sqft · 9% below area Est $1758k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Watch Roche Harbor fireworks from your dock! Perched along the coveted shores of Henry Is, this exceptional waterfront retreat captures sweeping views across sparkling waters to Roche Harbor & beyond. A rare offering, the property features a deep-water, shared dock, providing effortless access for boating, crabbing, fishing, and spontaneous sunset cruises. The home is thoughtfully positioned to embrace its breathtaking surroundings, with expansive windows that frame ever-changing marine vistas—boats gliding by, seabirds soaring, and the harbor lights twinkling at dusk. Two bedrooms on the main plus a sleeping- play loft above. The kitchen has beach-cottage cabinetry, a breakfast

Key facts

• Expansive windows
• Outdoor deck
• Protected moorage

Tags

• DEEP-WATER SHARED DOCK
• EXPANSIVE WINDOWS
• OUTDOOR DECK
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PROTECTED MOORAGE
• POSTCARD-WORTHY VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($104k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.60M).
• Recommended offer: $1.41M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 0.5% in Roche Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Island School District (rural): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #36 of 291 in WA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.41M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $775k; list at $1.60M implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,406,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.35%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,758,395
• List price: $1,598,000
• Delta: -9.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $291,767
• Equity at exit: $238,267

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $964,356
• Equity at exit: $138,166

Cash invested: $447,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98250

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,380
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,998 /mo · $23,970/yr
• Insurance: −$666
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $8,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,063

Max offer price $1,598,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,744	-5% $9,192	+0% $8,640	+5% $8,088	+10% $7,536
Rent	-10% $6,665	-5% $7,653	+0% $8,640	+5% $9,628	+10% $10,615
Rate	-1.0pp $9,445	-0.5pp $9,047	base $8,640	+0.5pp $8,226	+1.0pp $7,805

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $399,500
• Closing costs: $47,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Cobblestone Ln Friday Harbor, WA	3.0	3.5	1820	$25,000	$13.74	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,598,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,598,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-02-14
    listed $1,598,000 Active
19. 2016-10-04
    soldstatus $775,000 Sold
20. 2016-09-01
    status Pending
21. 2016-06-20
    listed $845,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,513
• − Property taxes: −$23,970
• − Insurance: −$8,788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$46,487
• Taxable income: $83,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19,978
• After-tax cash flow: $83,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Island School District
• NCES district ID: 5307650
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $58,476
• Composite: 56.64/100
• National rank: #2434
• State rank: #36 of 291 in WA

Livability — Roche Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,127

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,439 people
• By 2030: 17,871 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 18,236 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 18,468 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 19,749 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 20,348 · +16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.4) · D 73.7% · R 22.3% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.9pp · 2024: 51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.4 2020: D+50.5 2016: D+41.6 2012: D+37.5 2008: D+41.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.89%
• Current HPI: 187.6787
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+89.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $1,598,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-04 Sold (MLS) $775,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-20 Listed $845,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid