6126 W Rafter Circle St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$135,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 260 sqft · Manufactured public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1968 5,576 sqft lot $519/sqft · 321% above area Est $138k · at est. $208/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Mountain views, privacy, land ownership, and ideal snowbird living highlight this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, located on a uniquely positioned lot with extra space between neighbors. Mountain views can be enjoyed from the covered patio as well as from the bonus room and main living room. The split-bedroom floor plan works well for guests, and the attached additional living room provides extra space for everyday living or entertaining. The home includes a spacious laundry room with a built-in workbench and plenty of storage. The kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar and opens to the main living areas. Newer toilets have been installed throughout the home. Furniture may be available on a separate bill of sale to allow for easy move in. Several covered patios allow for comfortable outdoor living throughout the year. A large covered patio on the west and north sides of the home includes roll-down patio screens for afternoon shade, while the front covered patio is a great spot to enjoy sunsets and mountain views. The easy-care yard features mature fruit trees, including orange, tangerine, grapefruit, lemon, and tangelo trees, supported by a newer irrigation system. Additional features include two storage sheds, one large enough for a golf cart, a two-car carport, and an additional parking space. The home is conveniently located near community amenities. Located in an active 55+ community with access to two heated pools, a spa, an 18-hole executive golf course, pickleball courts, an exercise facility, a library, and a variety of social activities. **1-year termite warranty

Key facts

• Privacy
• Bonus room
• Covered patio

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVACY
• LAND OWNERSHIP
• COVERED PATIO
• BONUS ROOM
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $135k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,206 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,497
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -2.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-38,652
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -59.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.65×
• Total profit: $-62,478
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $96,206

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-181	+0% $-220	+5% $-258	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-261	+0% $-220	+5% $-178	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-185	base $-220	+0.5pp $-255	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $135,000 1617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1617 chars)

    Mountain views, privacy, land ownership, and ideal snowbird living highlight this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, located on a uniquely positioned lot with extra space between neighbors. Mountain views can be enjoyed from the covered patio as well as from the bonus room and main living room. The split-bedroom floor plan works well for guests, and the attached additional living room provides extra space for everyday living or entertaining. The home includes a spacious laundry room with a built-in workbench and plenty of storage. The kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar and opens to the main living areas. Newer toilets have been installed throughout the home. Furniture may be available on a separate bill of sale to allow for easy move in. Several covered patios allow for comfortable outdoor living throughout the year. A large covered patio on the west and north sides of the home includes roll-down patio screens for afternoon shade, while the front covered patio is a great spot to enjoy sunsets and mountain views. The easy-care yard features mature fruit trees, including orange, tangerine, grapefruit, lemon, and tangelo trees, supported by a newer irrigation system. Additional features include two storage sheds, one large enough for a golf cart, a two-car carport, and an additional parking space. The home is conveniently located near community amenities. Located in an active 55+ community with access to two heated pools, a spa, an 18-hole executive golf course, pickleball courts, an exercise facility, a library, and a variety of social activities. **1-year termite warranty

16. 2026-02-04
    listed $142,000 Active 1617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1617 chars)

    Mountain views, privacy, land ownership, and ideal snowbird living highlight this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home, located on a uniquely positioned lot with extra space between neighbors. Mountain views can be enjoyed from the covered patio as well as from the bonus room and main living room. The split-bedroom floor plan works well for guests, and the attached additional living room provides extra space for everyday living or entertaining. The home includes a spacious laundry room with a built-in workbench and plenty of storage. The kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar and opens to the main living areas. Newer toilets have been installed throughout the home. Furniture may be available on a separate bill of sale to allow for easy move in. Several covered patios allow for comfortable outdoor living throughout the year. A large covered patio on the west and north sides of the home includes roll-down patio screens for afternoon shade, while the front covered patio is a great spot to enjoy sunsets and mountain views. The easy-care yard features mature fruit trees, including orange, tangerine, grapefruit, lemon, and tangelo trees, supported by a newer irrigation system. Additional features include two storage sheds, one large enough for a golf cart, a two-car carport, and an additional parking space. The home is conveniently located near community amenities. Located in an active 55+ community with access to two heated pools, a spa, an 18-hole executive golf course, pickleball courts, an exercise facility, a library, and a variety of social activities. **1-year termite warranty

17. 2015-12-09
    soldstatus $72,000 Closed 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS HOME!!!!! 2 bedroom, 2 bth with large addition. This home is completely well furnished with many upgrades. Laundry/Workshop room and a golf cart garage with golf cart. Also a separate storage building. Home has a double carport which could be enclosed for a garage.The owner has left many tools, VCR tapes & movies. A complete list is in the home. You own the land and the right to use all of Tucson Estates many amenities.

18. 2015-12-07
    soldstatus $72,000
19. 2015-11-23
    status Pending 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS HOME!!!!! 2 bedroom, 2 bth with large addition. This home is completely well furnished with many upgrades. Laundry/Workshop room and a golf cart garage with golf cart. Also a separate storage building. Home has a double carport which could be enclosed for a garage.The owner has left many tools, VCR tapes & movies. A complete list is in the home. You own the land and the right to use all of Tucson Estates many amenities.

20. 2015-11-05
    listed $79,900 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    TAKE A LOOK AT THIS HOME!!!!! 2 bedroom, 2 bth with large addition. This home is completely well furnished with many upgrades. Laundry/Workshop room and a golf cart garage with golf cart. Also a separate storage building. Home has a double carport which could be enclosed for a garage.The owner has left many tools, VCR tapes & movies. A complete list is in the home. You own the land and the right to use all of Tucson Estates many amenities.

21. 1987-06-03
    soldstatus $35,000
22. 1987-06-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$4,997
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,199
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+285.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-04 Listed $142,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-12-09 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MLSSAZ
• 2015-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2015-11-23 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2015-11-05 Listed $79,900 MLSSAZ
• 1987-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.