65 Pali Way · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $202/sqft · 5% above area Est $157k · 5% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 55+ active adult community in the highly sought-after Delta Hawaii park! Enjoy effortless living in this move-in-ready manufactured home featuring stylish luxury vinyl flooring, a light-filled open-concept layout, and a thoughtfully designed split floor plan. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home with its own ensuite bath and walk-in shower, while the guest bedroom and full bath with a relaxing soaking tub are located at the front for added separation and comfort. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers a long covered carport, a storage shed, and extra privacy with no neighbor on one side. Community amenities include a heated pool, spa, sauna, and an active clubhouse hosting a variety of social events and activities. Enjoy the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and vibrant community living.

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Ensuite bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• GUEST BEDROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• LONG COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $731 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.99%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 5.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Pali Way	0.00mi	2/2.0	816 (0%)	1mo	$157,000	$192	99
128 Banyon Way	0.13mi	2/2.0	810 (-1%)	21mo	$175,000	$216	76
130 Banyon Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0	720 (-12%)	13mo	$105,000	$146	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $15,437
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $56,074
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 271
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $731

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $788	+0% $731	+5% $674	+10% $617
Rent	-10% $544	-5% $637	+0% $731	+5% $825	+10% $918
Rate	-1.0pp $814	-0.5pp $773	base $731	+0.5pp $688	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Meadowbrook Ave Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,600	$2.32	45d	1	0.16mi
1128 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	758	$2,245	$2.96	0d	12	0.24mi
500 Loveridge Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,428	$2.94	0d	10	0.31mi
110 Dias Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	819	$2,385	$2.91	0d	17	0.35mi
3818 Harbor St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$2,350	$2.85	5d	1	0.48mi
100 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	654	$1,745	$2.67	25d	1	0.51mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,294	$2.71	0d	18	0.88mi
2191 Lakeview Cir Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	783	$2,500	$3.19	18d	1	1.00mi
1680 Barrus Ave Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,300	$2.71	25d	1	1.00mi
1373 Columbia St Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	736	$1,900	$2.58	45d	1	1.02mi
265 Ramona St Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,999	$3.51	3d	1	1.09mi
265 Ramona St Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,999	$3.51	45d	1	1.09mi
30 Castlewood Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	793	$2,640	$3.33	0d	3	1.12mi
1346 Redwood St Pittsburg, CA	3.0	1.5	1066	$2,915	$2.73	18d	1	1.14mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	939	$2,490	$2.65	25d	1	1.19mi
706 E 12th St Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$2,490	$2.66	23d	1	1.19mi
535 Central Ave Unit 2 Pittsburg, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	45d	1	1.21mi
1000 Pheasant Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	879	$2,795	$3.18	25d	29	1.25mi
241 W Buchanan Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,660	$3.17	0d	13	1.33mi
461 E 9th St Unit 461 Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,100	$2.40	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Welcome to this 55+ active adult community in the highly sought-after Delta Hawaii park! Enjoy effortless living in this move-in-ready manufactured home featuring stylish luxury vinyl flooring, a light-filled open-concept layout, and a thoughtfully designed split floor plan. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home with its own ensuite bath and walk-in shower, while the guest bedroom and full bath with a relaxing soaking tub are located at the front for added separation and comfort. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers a long covered carport, a storage shed, and extra privacy with no neighbor on one side. Community amenities include a heated pool, spa, sauna, and an active clubhouse hosting a variety of social events and activities. Enjoy the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and vibrant community living.

2. 2026-02-25
   listed $165,000 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Welcome to this 55+ active adult community in the highly sought-after Delta Hawaii park! Enjoy effortless living in this move-in-ready manufactured home featuring stylish luxury vinyl flooring, a light-filled open-concept layout, and a thoughtfully designed split floor plan. The private primary suite is situated at the rear of the home with its own ensuite bath and walk-in shower, while the guest bedroom and full bath with a relaxing soaking tub are located at the front for added separation and comfort. Nestled at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, this home offers a long covered carport, a storage shed, and extra privacy with no neighbor on one side. Community amenities include a heated pool, spa, sauna, and an active clubhouse hosting a variety of social events and activities. Enjoy the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and vibrant community living.

3. 2024-03-12
   soldstatus $175,000 Closed
4. 2024-03-12
   soldstatus $175,000
5. 2024-02-05
   status Pending
6. 2023-09-15
   price $174,900
7. 2023-08-22
   listed $179,900 New
8. 2023-08-22
   listed $174,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,568
• After-tax cash flow: $7,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready manufactured home in a desirable community offers a good condition with minimal maintenance required. Upgrades to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace vinyl flooring — Freshens the interior and adds value
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace vinyl flooring — Freshens the interior and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-25 Listed $165,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-03-12 Sold (MLS) $175,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-03-12 Sold (MLS) $175,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-02-05 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-09-15 Price Changed $174,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-22 Listed $174,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-08-22 Listed $179,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR