8 Chapel St · Jeffersonville, NY 12748

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1900 0.35 ac lot $164/sqft · 17% below area Est $391k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Quaint Upstate Retreat tucked away just off of Main St awaits you. This Victorian home has only been home to 4 special owners in its lifetime and offers a warmth to its Victorian Charm. Nestled in the up and coming Jeffersonville sits this large 4 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home. The large rooms are so true to the design of the 1800's Victorians built. High ceilings, picture molding, multiple Bay Window settings are only a few of the amazing features this home offers. The walk up attic is unfinished but offers so much to the imagination so come and make it what you need it to be. Outside the wrap around porch would be the perfect space for your morning coffee. Spend your weekends and evenings out back in your pergola equipped with a fire pit perfect for those cool nights. Plenty of outside storage in the multiple sheds, a large flat cleared lot and your newly renovated wrap around porch awaits!

Key facts

• Wrap around porch
• Multiple sheds
• Walk up attic

Tags

• VICTORIAN HOME
• WRAP AROUND PORCH
• MULTIPLE BAY WINDOW SETTINGS
• WALK UP ATTIC
• MULTIPLE SHEDS
• LARGE FLAT CLEARED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-745 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (40.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.2% in Jeffersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#909 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sullivan West Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #436 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sullivan West Elementary School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #1,277 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 571 students, 37% FRL); Sullivan West High School At Lake Huntington (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 477 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (9.9% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $325k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,377 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,466
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -16.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
788 Swiss Hill Rd N	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,988 (+0%)	3mo	$875,000	$440	70
18 Center St	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,247 (+14%)	21mo	$450,000	$200	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $128,421
• Equity at exit: $291,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $415,275
• Equity at exit: $627,374

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12748

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,611/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,886

Max offer price $193,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-561	-5% $-653	+0% $-745	+5% $-837	+10% $-929
Rent	-10% $-899	-5% $-822	+0% $-745	+5% $-668	+10% $-592
Rate	-1.0pp $-581	-0.5pp $-662	base $-745	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-915

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $325,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $325,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $325,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $325,000 Active 210 DOM
8. 2025-11-03
   listed $325,000 Active 906-char remark

   Show marketing remark (906 chars)

   Your Quaint Upstate Retreat tucked away just off of Main St awaits you. This Victorian home has only been home to 4 special owners in its lifetime and offers a warmth to its Victorian Charm. Nestled in the up and coming Jeffersonville sits this large 4 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home. The large rooms are so true to the design of the 1800's Victorians built. High ceilings, picture molding, multiple Bay Window settings are only a few of the amazing features this home offers. The walk up attic is unfinished but offers so much to the imagination so come and make it what you need it to be. Outside the wrap around porch would be the perfect space for your morning coffee. Spend your weekends and evenings out back in your pergola equipped with a fire pit perfect for those cool nights. Plenty of outside storage in the multiple sheds, a large flat cleared lot and your newly renovated wrap around porch awaits!

9. 2025-11-02
   listed $325,000 Active 906-char remark

   Show marketing remark (906 chars)

   Your Quaint Upstate Retreat tucked away just off of Main St awaits you. This Victorian home has only been home to 4 special owners in its lifetime and offers a warmth to its Victorian Charm. Nestled in the up and coming Jeffersonville sits this large 4 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath home. The large rooms are so true to the design of the 1800's Victorians built. High ceilings, picture molding, multiple Bay Window settings are only a few of the amazing features this home offers. The walk up attic is unfinished but offers so much to the imagination so come and make it what you need it to be. Outside the wrap around porch would be the perfect space for your morning coffee. Spend your weekends and evenings out back in your pergola equipped with a fire pit perfect for those cool nights. Plenty of outside storage in the multiple sheds, a large flat cleared lot and your newly renovated wrap around porch awaits!

10. 1992-01-24
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,611 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,052 · $421/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,611
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$14,983
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,596
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan West Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600023
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $56,078
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3817
• State rank: #436 of 590 in NY

Livability — Jeffersonville

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #909
• US rank: #17767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jeffersonville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,616

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.95%
• Current HPI: 363.0899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Listed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $325,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,611 · -23.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.