124 N Maple Ave · Kermit, TX 79745

$153,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 5,662 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home in charming Kermit! This gem of a double-wide manufactured home is waiting for you. This home boasts a spacious covered front porch and a fully fenced backyard for privacy. The primary suite has a spacious ensuite bathroom with a large bathtub separate from the shower and two separate vanity sinks! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private tour.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large bathtub
• Separate shower

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE BATHTUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• TWO SEPARATE VANITY SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#925 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kermit ISD (town): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #602 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Winkler County population projected at +67% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,666 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.23%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $109,497
• Equity at exit: $138,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $302,255
• Equity at exit: $298,994

Cash invested: $43,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79745

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$807
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,771/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $153,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,475
• Closing costs: $4,617
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
452 North Avenue B Unit B Kermit, TX	3.0	1.5	1220	$1,800	$1.48	43d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $153,900 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,900 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,900 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,900 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,900 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $153,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-04-20
    price $164,000 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Move in ready home in charming Kermit! This gem of a double-wide manufactured home is waiting for you. This home boasts a spacious covered front porch and a fully fenced backyard for privacy. The primary suite has a spacious ensuite bathroom with a large bathtub separate from the shower and two separate vanity sinks! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private tour.

18. 2026-04-07
    listed $165,000 Active 371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (371 chars)

    Move in ready home in charming Kermit! This gem of a double-wide manufactured home is waiting for you. This home boasts a spacious covered front porch and a fully fenced backyard for privacy. The primary suite has a spacious ensuite bathroom with a large bathtub separate from the shower and two separate vanity sinks! Call your favorite Realtor today for a private tour.

19. 2022-11-30
    soldstatus Closed 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Three year old Legacy mobile home is move-in ready and perfect for the young family. Kitchen is equipped with electric range/oven, dishwasher and refrigerator. There is no carpet in this home so it works well with children and pets. A nice 12' x 16' storage building is included and is wired for electricity but not connected. All utilities were upgraded when the home was move in.

20. 2022-07-13
    price $130,000 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Three year old Legacy mobile home is move-in ready and perfect for the young family. Kitchen is equipped with electric range/oven, dishwasher and refrigerator. There is no carpet in this home so it works well with children and pets. A nice 12' x 16' storage building is included and is wired for electricity but not connected. All utilities were upgraded when the home was move in.

21. 2022-06-02
    listed $135,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Three year old Legacy mobile home is move-in ready and perfect for the young family. Kitchen is equipped with electric range/oven, dishwasher and refrigerator. There is no carpet in this home so it works well with children and pets. A nice 12' x 16' storage building is included and is wired for electricity but not connected. All utilities were upgraded when the home was move in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,771 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,816 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,045/yr (+$87/mo · 59.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,771
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,477
• Taxable income: $2,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $4,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Exposed framing and weathered appearance
• Major Foundation sealing — Exposed framing suggests potential moisture issues

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Upgrade HVAC — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Exposed framing and weathered appearance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation sealing · Exposed framing suggests potential moisture issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kermit ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825560
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $48,332
• Composite: 26.47/100
• National rank: #7215
• State rank: #602 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kermit

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #925
• US rank: #16453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kermit, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,160

Population outlook (Winkler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,019 people
• By 2030: 11,177 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 13,746 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 16,734 · +67.0%
• By 2075: 24,573 · +145.3%
• By 2100: 30,264 · +202.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Winkler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.5) · D 14.7% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -51.8pp · 2024: -70.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.5 2020: R+65.6 2016: R+52.5 2012: R+53.5 2008: R+51.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 233.1436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+21.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $164,000 ODMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $165,000 ODMLS
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $130,000 ODMLS
• 2022-06-02 Listed $135,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,771 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.