73 Winter Ridge Rd #73 · Winter Haven, FL 33881

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,073 sqft · Condo · 1 Days on market

Built 1992 $253/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Offers should be submitted on the most recent/updated FAR-BAR As-Is contract & be accompanied by signed addenda (available via MLS attachment), as well as pre-qualification/approval letter or Proof of Funds. Customers are NEVER allowed on the property without their agent present. This includes showings, inspections, appraisals, etc. Lockbox and/or gate codes should NEVER be provided to customers. See attachments in MLS for information on the HOA/COA.

Key facts

• $253 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Living area approximately 1,073 square feet; Universal property ID available
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $3,036; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $253 (includes no additional items); Association approval required; Association: Jonathan Turner; Community amenities: clubhouse, dog park, fitness center, playground, pool; Cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Public utilities
• Home design: Condominium (residential); One story; Faces northwest; Located on first floor
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on block foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Canal and Chain of Lakes water view; Private boat ramp access; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Block foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-755/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 491 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,800 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,207
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-37,530
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33881

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$253
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,719

Max offer price $150,800

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-8	+0% $-63	+5% $-118	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-192	-5% $-128	+0% $-63	+5% $2	+10% $67
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-22	base $-63	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
242 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,350	$1.26	15d	1	0.04mi
245 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	4d	1	0.07mi
502 Winter Ter #121 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	24d	1	0.08mi
350 Winter Ridge Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,425	$1.33	24d	1	0.18mi
2418 Mary Jewett Cir NE Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	4d	1	0.61mi
324 Avenue Y NE Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	904	$1,550	$1.71	24d	1	0.68mi
140 W Avenue Northwest Apt 3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	0.95mi
2007 9th St NE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,750	$1.41	24d	1	0.99mi
1830 2nd St NW Winter Haven, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	24d	1	1.23mi
1730 Broxey Ct NE Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	24d	1	1.24mi
1708 2nd St NW Unit B Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	1.37mi
1705 3rd St NW Unit A Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,650	$1.12	24d	1	1.42mi
395 Quentin Ave NW Unit 397 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.5	912	$1,450	$1.59	24d	1	1.42mi
235 Palmetto Ave NW Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,195	$1.17	24d	1	1.46mi
1550 11th St NE Unit G3 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$1,325	$1.15	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $253 · $3,036/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $159,900 Active
3. 2007-07-16
   historical
4. 2007-01-11
   listed $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,574
• − Management: −$1,574
• − HOA: −$3,036
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,317
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $41/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $57,024
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1270.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.95%
• Current HPI: 277.0597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-11 Listed $104,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid