40606 Guillemont Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$339,949

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2022 5,109 sqft lot $130/sqft · at area comps Est $346k · at est. $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 40606 Guillemont Ln in Magnolia, where space, style & value come together. This contemporary 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 2,606 sq ft & stands out as one of the last fully customized homes in the section at this price point. Inside you’ll find an open-concept layout with wood-look tile flooring, abundant natural light, a spacious living area & a beautifully designed kitchen with a large island, white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances & generous dining space. The private primary suite features a soaking tub, separate shower & a custom accent wall. Upstairs, enjoy the flexibility of a game room PLUS a dedicated media room with surround sound & step-up flooring for the ultimate movie-night experience. Furniture in the home can stay if desired. Outside, the extended back patio creates even more room to relax or entertain. A rare opportunity to get more space & features for your money. Low Tax Rate & neighborhood pool coming this Summer!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Large island
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-682 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,475 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.60%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,460
• List price: $339,949
• Delta: -1.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40439 Gerygone Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,502 (-4%)	9mo	$339,900	$136	79
40722 Barley Straw Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+3%)	1mo	$349,990	$131	66
40743 Barley Straw Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,681 (+3%)	2mo	$348,990	$130	65
15235 Tree Swallow Ct	0.55mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,688 (+3%)	5mo	$519,900	$193	56
14894 Whistling Duck Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-4%)	8mo	$499,900	$201	56
14818 Whistling Duck Ln	0.64mi	4/3.5	2,488 (-4%)	6mo	$499,900	$201	54
14870 Whistling Duck Ln	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,442 (-6%)	9mo	$453,900	$186	51
15531 Vauxs Swift Ln	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,840 (+9%)	1mo	$495,000	$174	47
14706 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,911 (+12%)	9mo	$529,900	$182	46
15110 Rose Willow Ln	0.57mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,252 (-14%)	2mo	$299,990	$133	44
14855 Whistling Duck Ln	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,300 (-12%)	10mo	$399,900	$174	44
15670 Audubon Park Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,994 (+15%)	3mo	$689,900	$230	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $135,414
• Equity at exit: $306,253

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $421,538
• Equity at exit: $660,446

Cash invested: $95,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$563 /mo · $6,752/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-682

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,343

Max offer price $219,475

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,987
• Closing costs: $10,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	43d	1	0.15mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	43d	1	0.62mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	43d	1	1.13mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	19d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,949 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,949 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,949 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,949 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,949 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,949 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,949 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,949 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,949 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,949 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,949 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,949 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,949 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    Welcome to 40606 Guillemont Ln in Magnolia, where space, style & value come together. This contemporary 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 2,606 sq ft & stands out as one of the last fully customized homes in the section at this price point. Inside you’ll find an open-concept layout with wood-look tile flooring, abundant natural light, a spacious living area & a beautifully designed kitchen with a large island, white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances & generous dining space. The private primary suite features a soaking tub, separate shower & a custom accent wall. Upstairs, enjoy the flexibility of a game room PLUS a dedicated media room with surround sound & step-up flooring for the ultimate movie-night experience. Furniture in the home can stay if desired. Outside, the extended back patio creates even more room to relax or entertain. A rare opportunity to get more space & features for your money. Low Tax Rate & neighborhood pool coming this Summer!

15. 2026-04-17
    listed $345,000 Active 1002-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1002 chars)

    Welcome to 40606 Guillemont Ln in Magnolia, where space, style & value come together. This contemporary 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 2,606 sq ft & stands out as one of the last fully customized homes in the section at this price point. Inside you’ll find an open-concept layout with wood-look tile flooring, abundant natural light, a spacious living area & a beautifully designed kitchen with a large island, white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances & generous dining space. The private primary suite features a soaking tub, separate shower & a custom accent wall. Upstairs, enjoy the flexibility of a game room PLUS a dedicated media room with surround sound & step-up flooring for the ultimate movie-night experience. Furniture in the home can stay if desired. Outside, the extended back patio creates even more room to relax or entertain. A rare opportunity to get more space & features for your money. Low Tax Rate & neighborhood pool coming this Summer!

16. 2026-02-13
    listed $350,000 Active
17. 2026-02-13
    historical
18. 2026-01-17
    listed $359,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,752 · $563/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,752 · $563/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,042
• − Property taxes: −$6,752
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,889
• Taxable loss: −$14,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,416
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $359,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+88.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,752 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.