10649 North Rd · Perrysburg, NY 14129

$65,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1984 1.27 ac lot Est $59k · 11% over ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you in the market for a single-family home in the peaceful town of Perrysburg? This charming ranch-style residence is situated on more than an acre of land, just around 5 miles from Zoar Valley and under 3 miles from the Seneca Nation Territory. With over 1,600 square feet of living space, this home features a roomy living room, a spacious kitchen, and an attached three-car garage. Home needs rehab and financing will be limited.

Key facts

• Complete remodel
• Plenty of land
• Over an acre

Tags

• OVER AN ACRE
• COMPLETE REMODEL
• SPACIOUS 3-CAR GARAGE
• PLENTY OF LAND

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Three-car garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale fixer condition; Metal roof; Rectangular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 379 x 145; Frontage on a main thoroughfare
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Blown-in insulation; Crawl space foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Den; Separate formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#880 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Gowanda Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #513 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.62%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10649 North Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,672 (0%)	7mo	$59,000	$35	94
10573 North Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-14%)	24mo	$50,000	$35	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $48,030
• Equity at exit: $48,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.78×
• Total profit: $123,345
• Equity at exit: $95,797

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14129

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,961/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $343

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 589-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,961 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,961 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,961
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,164
• − Management: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,402
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $3,300/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gowanda Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612390
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,777
• Composite: 34.71/100
• National rank: #5138
• State rank: #513 of 590 in NY

Livability — Perrysburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #17139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perrysburg, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,228

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Native American 10% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.83%
• Current HPI: 276.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-45.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-19 Sold (MLS) $59,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $59,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $74,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $89,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $104,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-07 Sold (MLS) $100,700 WNYREIS
• 2021-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $100,700 Public Records
• 2021-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-05-27 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-05-24 Price Changed $115,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-04-23 Listed $120,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,961 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.