4150 Rolling Oaks Dr · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$116,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,032 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1985 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Move right into this well maintained home. The home comes furnished with everything you see. The cathedral ceilings give you an open and spacious feel to the living area. You will find upgraded kitchen with a nice cooktop stove and built in oven and microwave. The bathrooms have been updated with new vanities. A new HVAC system has just been installed. The roof is a roof-over which adds extra insulation value and has a very long life. The windows have also been upgraded adding even more insulation value to the home. This home is located in Oakwood Estates, a 55+ community which offers many amenities and activities. Enjoy the Florida sun in one of the

Key facts

• Cathedral ceilings
• Upgraded kitchen
• Upgraded windows

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• UPGRADED WINDOWS
• TWO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Private maintained paved road access; Located on Dinner Lake (waterfront extras include fishing pier)
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $163.11; Total annual fees listed as $1,957.32
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee required (approximately $163.11); HOA includes water and trash; Community features: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard, gated entry, deed restrictions, buyer approval required, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed; Association contact: Heidi Thompson

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces south
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a lot under 1/4 acre (approximately 0.08 acres)
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Fishing pier (lake extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $802 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $116k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.94%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,357
• Equity at exit: $17,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $17,165
• Equity at exit: $10,030

Cash invested: $32,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,519/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $116,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,000
• Closing costs: $3,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.67mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	3d	1	1.00mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	1.03mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	1.04mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	23d	1	1.06mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	1.07mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.07mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.17mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   listed $116,000 Active
3. 2006-03-01
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,498
• − Property taxes: −$1,519
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,375
• Taxable income: $1,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$379
• After-tax cash flow: $2,851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+68.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,519 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.