556 Ox-bow Ct · Burleson, TX 76028

$189,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1984 0.50 ac lot $214/sqft · 19% below area Est $235k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

Key facts

• Big backyard
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Outdoor entertaining

Tags

• FULL HALF-ACRE
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• BIG BACKYARD
• SPACE FOR PETS
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• MINUTES FROM SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Burleson ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #236 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,180 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.84%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,009
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -19.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-40,595
• Equity at exit: $28,329

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-52,825
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76028

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,482 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,652/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $167,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-72	+0% $-126	+5% $-180	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-243	-5% $-184	+0% $-126	+5% $-67	+10% $-9
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-78	base $-126	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-225

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,999 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,999 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,999 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,999 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $189,999 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $205,000 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

15. 2026-04-23
    status Active 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

16. 2026-04-15
    status Pending 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

17. 2026-04-06
    historical Active Option Contract 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

18. 2026-03-27
    listed $225,000 Active 1070-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET DUE TO NO FAULT OF THE SELLERS- BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Looking for space, charm, and a little slice of Texas freedom? This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home on a full half-acre in Burleson delivers just that! Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this property offers the kind of room you just can’t find every day — whether you’re dreaming of a big backyard, a garden, space for pets, or future upgrades, the possibilities here are wide open. Inside, you’ll find a cozy layout filled with natural light and comfortable living spaces, making it perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone ready to trade in the hustle for a little breathing room. Step outside and imagine the potential — outdoor entertaining, adding a shop, or simply enjoying peaceful Texas evenings under the open sky ? All of this while still being just minutes from shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences in Burleson. Opportunities like this don’t come around often — come see the potential and make it your own!

19. 2018-10-05
    soldstatus
20. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus Sold 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    This a great House for those who like to renovate. It is ready to add your own personality. Very little demolition needed.

21. 2018-09-14
    status Pending 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    This a great House for those who like to renovate. It is ready to add your own personality. Very little demolition needed.

22. 2018-09-08
    historical Active Option Contract 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    This a great House for those who like to renovate. It is ready to add your own personality. Very little demolition needed.

23. 2018-08-26
    listed $69,000 Active 122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (122 chars)

    This a great House for those who like to renovate. It is ready to add your own personality. Very little demolition needed.

24. 2002-06-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 31.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,652
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,423
• − Management: −$1,423
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,161
• After-tax cash flow: $-351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burleson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812180
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,349
• Composite: 40.05/100
• National rank: #3818
• State rank: #236 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burleson, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 81,549
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 81,549
• Household income: $101,138
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -141.44%
• Current HPI: 282.466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+197.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2018-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-04 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2018-09-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2018-09-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2018-08-26 Listed $69,000 NTREIS
• 2002-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,652 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.