16711 Marsh Creek Rd #161 · Antioch, CA 94517

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $280k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable comfort living in scenic foothills of Mt. Diablo. This Beautiful 2 year young 4- bedroom 2 bath custom manufactured home with many special features. Rural living at its best. This spacious 1580 square foot home comes with custom ceiling fans, solar lighted door knobs, palm entry security front door and alarm system.

Key facts

• Alarm system
• Custom ceiling fans
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CUSTOM MANUFACTURED HOME
• CUSTOM CEILING FANS
• SOLAR LIGHTED DOOR KNOBS
• PALM ENTRY SECURITY FRONT DOOR
• ALARM SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Clayton Regency park; Clubhouse; Playground; Community pool; On-site activities available; Pets allowed (cats and dogs allowed with limits and approval)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; Carport for 2 or more vehicles; 2 covered parking spaces; Off-street parking
• Utilities: 220 volts in kitchen; Individual electric meter; Public sewer; Propane water heater
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (mobile home); Double wide (Harmony model); Faces west; Entry at main level
• Construction: Wood siding and lap siding; Crawl space foundation; Earthquake braced; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Located on a cul-de-sac / dead-end street; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric range; Gas range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Ice maker hookup; 220-volt outlet; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4+ bedrooms; Primary bedroom suite on main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Perimeter heating; Propane heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Updated kitchen; No additional rooms; Double-pane windows with window coverings; Main entry; Laundry facility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Laundry cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Brentwood Union Elementary (suburban): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #268 of 1,400 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,660
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #29	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (-1%)	21mo	$240,000	$154	76
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #175	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,460 (-8%)	18mo	$216,000	$148	73
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #68	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	8mo	$260,000	$185	70
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #52	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-10%)	15mo	$250,000	$177	65
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #88	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-13%)	14mo	$185,000	$135	61
16711 Marsh Creek Rd #66	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-14%)	10mo	$255,000	$189	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $10,895
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $89,527
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94517

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$854
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,840

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 328-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $315,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,906
• − Management: −$3,906
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable income: $7,106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $9,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0605910
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $91,644
• Composite: 52.7/100
• National rank: #3320
• State rank: #268 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 116,477
• Population (ZIP): 12,164

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -693.84%
• Current HPI: 144.7139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B